“The situation is insurrectionary. We are heading straight for civil war,” warned Louis Le Franc, whose position as French high commissioner makes him President Emmanuel Macron’s top representative in New Caledonia.

Adding to the drama, France has accused the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan of fomenting the unrest that has so far led to five deaths in a tiny territory with a population equivalent to Hobart. French authorities have estimated that 5000 people participated in the riots, with 200 arrested.

Sheima Riahi, a 33-year-old New Caledonian radio journalist, says she has never seen anything like it. “All streets in the residential neighbourhoods are barricaded,” says Riahi, who lives in Le Mont-Dore, a commune on the outskirts of Noumea.

“There is a lot of worry, anxiety and fear.”

Food products are starting to run out, she says, leading to huge supermarket queues. Milk, rice and pasta are being rationed. Hospitals and pharmacies are struggling to cope, with some patients unable to access crucial dialysis services.

Adding to the sense of danger: New Caledonia has one of the highest firearm rates in the world, with 42 guns per 100 people.

Riahi says that, for New Caledonians older than herself, the past week has brought back memories of a traumatic period locals call “les événements”, or “the events” in English. Stretching from 1976 to 1988, this era saw conflict regularly break out between French authorities and pro-independence Kanak rebels. Roadblocks, gun battles and property destruction flared when France’s centre-right government launched a land distribution scheme that favoured Europeans over Kanaks. The violence peaked in 1988 when Kanak rebels took 27 French police officers hostage in a cave on the island of Ouvéa. The subsequent rescue mission led to the death of 19 hostage-takers and two members of the recovery team.

Riahi grew up in the period of relative stability that followed, as France granted more power to New Caledonia and put the territory on a potential path to independence. In 2018, 2020 and 2021 voters opted to remain part of France. Independence activists encouraged a boycott of the 2021 poll, which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, and still harbour hopes of breaking away from France.

Under the current rules, New Caledonians have French nationality, vote for the president of France and can vote in European Parliament elections. Retaining ultimate control of New Caledonia buttresses France’s claims to be an Indo-Pacific power, and provides access to its vast nickel reserves.

This week’s burst of unrest was triggered by politicians in Paris pushing ahead with a plan to extend voting rights to French citizens who have lived in the territory for 10 years or more. Framed as a pro-democracy measure, the change would dilute the electoral power of the Kanaks, who represent around 40 per cent of the territory’s population and could crush the dreams of those who long for independence.

France has pointed that finger at Azerbaijan for encouraging the unrest, noting the sudden emergence of Azerbaijani flags alongside Kanak symbols in New Caledonian protests.

“This isn’t a fantasy. It’s a reality,” French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin told television channel France 2 when asked if Azerbaijan, China and Russia were interfering in New Caledonia.

“I regret that some of the Caledonian pro-independence leaders have made a deal with Azerbaijan. It’s indisputable.”

Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aykhan Hajizada fired back:“Instead of accusing Azerbaijan of allegedly supporting pro-independence protests in New Caledonia, the Minister of the Interior of France should focus on his country’s failed policy towards the overseas territories that led to such protests.”

France and Azerbaijan have had increasingly frosty relations in recent years, driven in part by France’s increasingly close ties to Azerbaijani rival Armenia.

Based on her conversations with New Caledonian women, Nicole George instead emphasises the huge gulf in wealth and status between the territory’s Indigenous and European populations when explaining the unrest. Kanaks are significantly more likely to live in poverty and be unemployed. “That fosters a lot of resentment, grievance and polarisation,” she says. “Young Kanak people see self-determination as opening up the possibility of a different future.”

Stark inequality persists despite New Caledonia being the world’s fourth-largest producer of nickel, putting it ahead of Australia. The territory’s nickel industry, however, is ailing, with three processing plants on the verge of collapse. This has added to the sense of despair on New Caledonia, which has a population of around 270,000 people.

The French High Commission in New Caledonia on Friday welcomed a lessening in tension, saying in a statement: “For the first time since Monday, the state of emergency has led to a calmer, more peaceful situation in Greater Noumea, despite the fires at a school and two businesses... In conjunction with the government of New Caledonia, the French state is mobilising to support the population and organise the delivery of essential goods.”

With the international airport still closed, Nicole George expects it will take a week before she can return home to Brisbane. If there has been any upside to the destruction of the past week, she says it is that Australians are getting a better idea of the complex, fascinating region they live in but often know little about.

“It’s not only the China story in the Pacific,” she says.

With Chris Zappone