But displacing Rudd may be even harder for Trump than defeating the Democrats. Rudd is insightful, strategic and highly self-focused. Having seen him up close while I was a chief of staff in the Gillard and then Rudd governments, I have no doubt he has worked tirelessly, and effectively, to neutralise the impact of this issue from the very moment he took seriously his own idea, or the suggestion of another, that he become ambassador to the US. To think he has just started to deal with this issue is to misunderstand Rudd entirely.

Loading

For a start, Rudd has already ingratiated himself with Trump’s inner circle, including his running mate, J.D. Vance, the advisers who feed into Trump’s circle, and the people who are likely to fill senior positions in a Trump administration.

Rudd can be self-effacing, charming and impressive. Many people in the world around Trump are likely believers in Rudd’s narrative about his suitability and the importance of him being in Washington at this time of international uncertainty.

It is also unlikely that Rudd is embarrassed by his remarks. Rudd likes colourful language and the attention it may bring. Even negative attention is not necessarily bad for someone who courts the spotlight. Nonetheless, Rudd probably plays down those insults that he cannot credibly deny. Rudd may even suggest to some that Trump himself sometimes gets caught out. It just happens in public life. What he won’t do is apologise.

Rudd’s defence also benefits from the increasing importance of Australia in the US view of the security equation for Asia, and the future of the US role there. Australia’s stocks have gone up considerably, in parallel with US concerns about China. In this context, Australia’s support for US military engagements around the world is highly valued, as is Australia’s willingness to pauper itself to bolster the US defence industry through AUKUS.

Loading

Rudd has also left his US network in no doubt that Trump does not need another “Turnbull moment”, where Trump treated an Australian prime minister roughly, only to discover significant pushback from the US establishment, and within his own administration.

And of course, Rudd has lined up the Australian government behind him from before he took the job. Everyone knew this moment might come. Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong and others have the benefit of following a script written long ago.

We can know all of this because Rudd is a master at winning people over and even overcoming trenchant opposition. This was evident when he replaced Julia Gillard as prime minister. Since he had been deposed, Rudd worked to undermine the government and party he had so recently led. Some members of government believed Rudd was instrumental in the declining fortunes of Labor, and its prospects at the next election.

Not a few members of the government were angry and even bitter about Rudd, but that did not stop enough of them voting for Rudd. Not only had Rudd convinced them that he was an electoral asset, they also believed he would ruthlessly continue to wreck the government if he did not lead it. This sentiment was captured in the comment, “I don’t want to reward bad behaviour, but …” by some who voted for him.

Loading

Accordingly, Rudd will not be departing the Australian Embassy in Washington if Trump wins the election. Trump may have a strong record of getting rid of opponents and others who earn his ire, but in Rudd, Trump has met a skilled, cunning and hard-working target who will not be intimidated or easily dislodged.

There will, no doubt, be some entertainment value for observers if Trump again becomes president, and he meets with our “Mr Rudd” at a diplomatic function. Trump may puff up arrogantly, and could even call Rudd out for saying nasty things about him. But Rudd will have gamed this scenario over and over before it happens, and is unlikely to be flustered. Indeed, he may just tell Trump that he called the Chinese much worse, and Trump will be amused and becalmed when he finds out what that was.

David Livingstone is a former Australian diplomat and an international security and strategy specialist. He served as deputy head of mission in Iraq between 2011 and 2012.

The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.