A national survey released on Thursday by Ipsos found 59 per cent of Australians supported moving from fossil fuels to renewables, while 17 per cent were opposed.

Pro-renewables consultancy NEXA Advisory recently published modelling, reported by this masthead, suggesting ageing coal power stations were increasingly unreliable towards the end of their lifespans, and it would cost consumers if they were forced to stay open because the replacement infrastructure had not been built.

NEXA Advisory chief executive Stephanie Bashir, a former senior director of public policy at AGL Energy, said the outages outlined in the AER report were a real-world demonstration of how delays would cost consumers.

Bashir said an orderly transition would mean that the renewable generation and required transmission were both built on time to enable the coal power stations to shut down as scheduled, but of the eastern states, only Queensland was on track.

“Currently, we’re on a disorderly transition because our transmission projects have all been delayed, especially the ones deemed as of national significance,” Bashir said.

“It’s really about Victoria and NSW … because they have the most coal power stations that are ageing and due to close over the next decade.”

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The planned closure of Eraring was delayed by two years, from 2025 to 2027, in a deal between the NSW government and owner Origin. The next scheduled closure is Yallourn in Victoria, which Energy Australia plans to close in 2028. Then, in 2033, two NSW coal power stations, Vales Point and Bayswater, are due to close.

At a summit last week, Smart Energy Council chief executive John Grimes warned that the “real nightmare scenario” was that Eraring would be extended a second time because so many renewables projects were stuck in the planning system.

He said approvals for renewable projects took five to eight years and cost upwards of $1 million in NSW, compared with one year and $30,000 in Queensland and three to five years and $100,000 in Victoria.

“The [NSW planning] rules are being exploited to slow down and hamper progress,” Grimes said. “If you get more than 50 objections to a project, it’s automatically referred to the Independent Planning Commission, and Peter Pumpkin, 1000 kilometres away, can object.”

State energy ministers are consulting on an orderly exit management framework for the national electricity market to manage the retirement of coal power stations or to extend their lives where necessary. Bashir said this did not provide enough certainty about closure.

Wood said the wholesale price in one state affects the national energy market because when transmission is working normally, power is sold interstate. In May, NSW was hit by network outages that prevented it from accessing cheaper power from Victoria and Queensland.

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