You have to be careful with those apparent messages from the universe: no matter how well-timed and profound they seem, they're not always reliable.

Just as I was finishing a careful read of an important piece of research into the dangers and unhelpfulness of that "you can be anything you want" message we enthusiastically share with our children, a fresh-faced 14-year-old won gold in Paris and blew us all away.

Hand over her mouth, eyes shining, Arisa Trew had just tumbled 540 degrees through the air, flying over the kinds of concrete barriers that make parents and dentists wince, to become our youngest ever gold medallist. She started skating at the age of seven after a casual visit to a skate park. She now stands above all others, even while she can't yet reach the shoulders of her proud father.

Natural talent, genetic advantages and the sheer brilliance of the prodigy are beyond negotiation — and far beyond the well-meaning dictates of the research I was reading. That particular caution around unrealistic expectations is clearly meant for ordinary mortals, but every generation produces its Mozart, or Tiger or Arisa. They are the exception that complicates the rule, because natural talent is one thing; access and opportunity is the other.

We are all familiar with the Cinderella story of success from disadvantage — it's a narrative that humanity has cherished for centuries. The kid from the favela who becomes the star striker; the daughter of a drug addict, raised in a foster home who becomes the gymnastics GOAT.

But apart from their undeniable natural agility, or speed, or flexibility, the one other quality these kids share is that someone somewhere gave them access: found the gym, bought the kit, took them to training and — much sooner than later — paid the money to get them the elite training they needed to become the star athlete they showed the promise to be.

Opportunity doesn't come for everyone

In the Venn diagram of success, genetic pre-determination must cross with opportunity, but the sweet intersection is when advantage is included, too. That's three crucial parts, and it's one of the great myths of Australian opportunity and egalitarianism is that this isn't the reality for many kids here.

Arisa's family story is a terrific one. Her parents moved to the Gold Coast when she was young, and she grew up between two major surf breaks, saying she can't remember a time when she wasn't surfing with her mum and dad. It's a lovely story of a surfing family that was ready, and able, to support the talents of its young child.

Opportunity. It doesn't come for everyone, and that's just the lottery of life. But we pride ourselves on being a nation of sports lovers with active, involved kids. So what do the stats tell us about how it looks for most Australian children?

A 2022 UNICEF poll found that at least two in five Australian households said they had taken their children out of sports or physical activities — or were considering it because of the cost, and 2023 data from the Australian Sports Commission revealed that children were less likely to participate in regular sport if they were from a low-income family, lived in a remote or regional area, or spoke a language other than English at home.