The pressure on the Heritage Foundation became so great that Project 2025 architect Paul Dans announced he was planning to stand down. Then far-right influencers like Owens, Loomer and Fuentes started going public with their concerns.

In a tweet viewed more than 2.6 million times, Fuentes said the campaign had been “hijacked”, and that “without serious changes, we are headed for a catastrophic loss”.

Owens, who has 5 million followers on X, said on a recent podcast that she was “not sure who is driving the MAGA bus any more” and issued a warning to Trump directly, saying: “You’re losing that support from the people that believed in you … You need those people.”

These influencers haven’t actually “turned” on Trump. In blaming the campaign and high-level staff, they’re hedging their bets. If he wins in November, they’ll say it’s because Trump listened to them and will be well-positioned to build that power and influence either inside or alongside his administration. If he loses, they’ve already laid blame at the feet of the campaign.

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The dilemma for them is that no matter the outcome, they need to hold onto their credibility so that they too don’t lose the eyes and ears (and thus their income streams) of their perennially online audiences. Having “influence” is what makes them money and gives them fame. If they back a loser or don’t see a loss coming, they can hardly claim to have influence.

These influencers have no interest in appealing to moderates, independents or swing voters; they are utterly convinced that mobilising their base is how Trump wins. They believe that base is enough, driven by their own righteous cause, even when polling data suggests otherwise.

That’s why they’re becoming increasingly insistent that Trump returns to an agenda as unapologetically far-right as their own. In their minds, he is struggling not because he doesn’t have enough mainstream support, but because he is moving too close to the centre.

To them, Trump represents the possible culmination of a generational ideological project. They are desperate for power and to implement minority rule. It is a grift, but it’s an ideologically driven one.

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A loss in November would be an existential blow to their incomes, their influence, and their ideology. That’s why they’re so worried.

But while they’re issuing warnings and calling for campaign scalps, they won’t turn on Trump until they’re absolutely sure he’s a lost cause – and that is still far from certain.

Dr Emma Shortis is a senior researcher in the International and Security Affairs Program at The Australia Institute.

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