Not only are we in a post-Roe America, but a post-MeToo world. Trump himself, in a civil case brought by E. Jean Carroll – who claimed he raped her in a New York department store in the mid-1990s – was found liable of sexual assault. As with his conviction for paying hush money to a former porn star, Stormy Daniels, it did not prevent him from winning the Republican presidential nomination. Still, the court’s finding could influence that most vital of demographics – wavering suburban women. Already this year, tens of thousands of conservative-minded women signalled displeasure with Trump by voting for his female rival in the Republican primaries, Nikki Haley.

Loading

Since 2016, female politicians have been breaking glass ceilings across America. Congress has the highest proportion of female members in US history – a 59 per cent increase on a decade ago. A record 12 out of 50 state governorships are held by women. Only 18 states have never had a female governor, including Harris’ home state – liberal California. Even conservative bastions such as Alabama and Texas have been led by women. South Carolina elected as Governor Nikki Haley – like Harris, a woman of Indian descent.

Unlike Hillary Clinton, Harris does not have a Bill Clinton problem. The former president made it harder for his wife to win, partly because of Clinton fatigue, partly because the couple were seen as establishment elitists, and partly because his philandering made it harder to punish Trump’s misogyny.

In another key difference, Harris is downplaying her gender, and not drawing attention to the historic nature of her candidacy. There’s no equivalent of Clinton’s “I’m with her” slogan. For her acceptance speech at the Democratic convention, Harris wore a navy-blue pantsuit rather than suffragette white, as Clinton had done eight years previously.

Nor is she drawing attention to her race. In her first television interview as the presidential nominee on Thursday night, Harris was asked about Trump’s bigoted slur that she had turned black for political purposes. “Same old tired playbook,” she replied, smartly and succinctly. “Next question, please.”

Loading

None of this means Harris is a shoo-in for the presidency. Far from it. She’ll face misogyny and racism – the term misogynoir conflates the two. She’s also trying to become the first California Democrat ever to win the presidency. Four out of the seven key battleground states have never had a female governor. In Pennsylvania, the must-win state for both candidates, a woman has never even been elected senator. Between 2015 and 2019, its 20-strong congressional delegation was all male.

Always, though, it is worth remembering that Hillary Clinton won three million more votes than Donald Trump, and, practically speaking, was as much a victim of the vagaries of the Electoral College as she was of chauvinism. That remains an obstacle for Harris.

Even if more Americans vote for the female candidate over the male, that glass ceiling could nonetheless survive intact.

Nick Bryant, a former BBC Washington correspondent, is the author of The Forever War: America’s Unending Conflict with Itself.