Welcome to that time of the political cycle where we find ourselves burrowing into the election date speculation rabbit hole.

It's a spectacle which can both delight and bore political insiders and the broader population — but it's still a thing, given the federal government does not have fixed terms.

The current curio is some of the chest beating by the government on matters of housing — demanding the Senate get out of the way and back key Albanese laws.

If the red room doesn't do that, twice, it could hand the prime minister a trigger to call an early "double dissolution" election which would force all senators to battle for their political future.

And he's already being asked about it, and is being deliberately coy.

But the window of opportunity is very, very tight and would result in Australians being sent to the polls at a very inopportune time.

What is a double dissolution election?

The term "double dissolution" sounds mildly painful, and it is the ultimate upending of the political arena.

A usual general election involves all House of Representatives seats being put up for a vote, and only half of the Senate's 76 seats.

The idea being that the upper house is the 'house of review', and having some continuity in its membership is a good thing.

In a double dissolution election, all Senators are turfed out.

It happens if the upper house is obstructing the agenda of the government, and the chamber needs to be reset.

The unusual feature of the system made sense in the political context at Federation, as the ABC's election analyst Antony Green explains.

"The large states insisted that a popularly-elected government in the House must have a mechanism to overcome the blocking power in the Senate, which is why the double dissolution power was created.

"But the threat has lost much of its power since the introduction of proportional representation for Senate elections in 1949. A double dissolution halves the quota for the election which means it is not a credible threat to wave at minor parties.

"Since 1987 it has become less a threat to the Senate and more a mechanism to achieve an early election."

How do you get a trigger for a double dissolution election?

It's not an easy task to meet the requirements under the constitution to call a double dissolution election — it's deliberately difficult given the severity of the situation.

The reason we're talking about it now is because of the government's housing policy – there are two bills before the Senate, known as the 'Help to Buy' legislation.

The Greens and the Coalition don't want to back the proposal, but Labor is demanding they get out of the way.

If it goes to a vote, and is blocked in the Senate, we start crawling (certainly not marching) down the path of getting a trigger for a double dissolution.

The government would have to wait three months, then put the legislation to a vote in both houses again, without any changes.

If it's blocked a second time, the prime minister is handed the ammunition to call a 'double-D'.

But is there enough time for a double dissolution election?

This is where the constitutional gods aren't exactly shining on the government, if it decides to take such a nuclear option.

Section 57 of the constitution (don't pretend like you don't know it off by heart) talks about what happens when the House and the Senate aren't playing nicely with each other, and they both need to be dissolved.

It goes to the issue of timing.

"Such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time," it says.

Now, here's where calendars come into play. Bear with me.

A term of the House of Representatives runs for three years, from the first meeting of the House.

After the last election, the House first sat on July 26, 2022. So a three year term takes it to July 26, 2025.

Six months prior to that, is January 26, 2025 – Australia Day, next year.

So that's the last opportunity for a double dissolution to be called, although since elections are conventionally held on Saturdays it would if anything land on the day before.

Can the government get a trigger by then?

Technically, yes. But gee whiz, it'd be like threading a needle.

If the Help to Buy legislation gets voted down today, for example, the government would need to wait three months to try again.

The parliamentary year would be over by then – but it could recall both houses and force a vote, between December 17 and Australia Day, before parliament usually returns in February.

Yeah, but, would they though?

A threat is only a threat if there's actually a chance of following through.

And you'd have to say, based on the maths above, that's a very remote possibility.

There are a bunch of other considerations which would play into the prime minister, and broader government's thinking here.

Firstly – if it's a double dissolution election, the share of votes needed for successful Senate candidates is halved.

That means a much lower threshold for election – which in turn means a much higher chance of risk for the government.

The Greens, currently the favoured target for prime ministerial pillorying, would likely re-elect its current 12 senators and have the possibility to win more seats.

The crossbench could actually be expanded – more minor parties and independents getting a spot on the red leather benches, an outcome Antony Green says is "almost certain" given the lower quota.

Then, there's the matter of interrupting the sacred summer holidays of Australians with an election campaign.

As the nation winds down for a break, politicians would be battling to be heard above the sounds of leather hitting willow on the cricket pitch, and the lapping of waves at the beach.

So, when could a standard election be held?

Thanks for asking.

We are in the window of opportunity for a standard full House, half Senate election to be held – and have been since early August.

The last possible opportunity for an election is May 17, 2025.

The prime minister wouldn't dare send voters to the polls on the weekends of September 28 or October 5 — given that's when the AFL and NRL grand finals would be held.

And he's already missed the chance to do that anyway.

The ACT election is scheduled for October 19, and the Queensland election is on the following Saturday.

He wouldn't want to interrupt other polls – particularly in the sunshine state, given its huge influence on federal results.

The first opportunity to hold an election before the end of the year, with an uninterrupted five week campaign, would be November 30.

The last two November elections were called by John Howard – he won in 2001 and lost in 2007.

Next year then?

Campaigning over Christmas and summer is tricky, for reasons already discussed.

There hasn't been a December election since Bob Hawke won in 1984, and there's never been a federal election in January or February.

March 1 could be in play, as it's the first available date if the PM decides to fire the starter's gun for a five week campaign on the Australia Day weekend.

And it highlights why a double dissolution is unlikely — we're so far into the window of opportunity, the prime minister can just take the usual election route within the same time frame.

The following weekend, March 8, is the WA election — a state which gave Anthony Albanese strong support in 2022 but may be subject to a correction in polling this time around.

Easter will come and go in April, and the last two elections have had the Easter period in the middle of campaigns, but not on Easter weekend.

And remember – the prime minister keeps saying he wants to serve a full term.

I'm no betting man. But, maybe it's going to be May.