Hezbollah itself, having prepared for this day for the past 18 years, will feel confident in its ability to withstand the withering Israeli barrage that is unfolding. Tunnels, training and new equipment, perhaps including anti-aircraft capabilities and anti-ship missiles, a belief that they won in 2006, and a celebration of martyrdom all strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve and willingness to join the fray.

Currently, the war is fought in the air. Jets, rockets and missiles streak across the sky delivering destruction and disruption. Israel’s 60,000 citizens displaced from northern Israel testify to the fear that deadly strikes from the air can deliver. Destroyed rocket launchers and other infrastructure in Lebanon speak to the same.

But can an aerial war, even an incredibly intensive one that both Israel and Hezbollah envisage, deliver a decisive victory? With Lebanon in ruins, will Israelis be able to safely return to their homes in the north? And even with a massive barrage of rockets, missiles and drones, can Hezbollah achieve any victory beyond the rhetorical?

It is likely that the answer to all three questions is a resounding no. History has shown that control of territory is key, and that involves going and taking it.

This is Hezbollah’s hope, and perhaps, its only chance of avoiding a comprehensive defeat. While some commentators have warned that Hezbollah has plans to invade the north of Israel and threaten Israel’s major cities, Hezbollah’s real chance, perhaps its only chance, is if the Israeli Defence Forces invade southern Lebanon.

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There is a significant possibility that the invader, whether it is Israel into Lebanon, or Hezbollah into Israel, risks catastrophic defeat.

With the IDF needing to hold strong defensive positions against Egypt, and a prudent level of forces against Jordan, as well as forces committed to Gaza, there is a possibility of Hezbollah achieving some success on the ground in northern Israel. But such a development would bring in the US, which is committed to the defence of Israel and has historic scores to settle with Hezbollah. That’s effectively game over for the organisation.

Hezbollah will probably seek to provoke the IDF into invading Lebanon, and if that happens, the world will learn if there is any truth to Hezbollah’s boasting of its web of tunnels, sophisticated tactics and advanced capabilities.

Having been in Beirut in 2006 during their previous conflict, and having liaised with people who were familiar with Hezbollah, I would not underestimate its ability to inflict serious damage on the IDF. The most worrying sign for Israel may be if an IDF invasion makes unexpectedly quick progress. Hezbollah’s infrastructure, predicated on such an invasion, probably has the potential to cut off, encircle and decimate an IDF force. A war of terrible destruction seems guaranteed. A war of atrocious attrition is also possible.

One thing is certain. No red lines will be observed. Once both sides commit to all-out war, there will be no umpire, no moral code or international rules to protect anyone involved. It makes me hope that the descriptor “necessary war” is an overstatement of current regional thinking.

David Livingstone is a former Australian diplomat and an international security and strategy specialist. He served as deputy head of mission in Iraq between 2011 and 2012.