It’s a warm afternoon in the desert city of Reno, Nevada, and a homeless man is sitting on the granite steps of a century-old courthouse, oblivious to the Murdoch family drama that has just concluded inside.

Around the corner, deputies from the local sheriff’s office guard the main entrance to the dome-capped building, keeping a watchful eye on the few people walking past.

Behind the court, a convoy of black SUVs is now gone, and so too are Rupert Murdoch and his four eldest children, whose Succession-style stoush over their family trust ended on Monday after six days of hearings held in secret.

The high-stakes battle could determine the fate of one of the world’s most influential conservative media businesses and potentially shift the direction of an expansive media network that includes Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and The Australian.

It is not clear when Washoe County Court probate commissioner Edmund Gorman will rule on the matter, in which the 93-year-old Murdoch is trying to change the conditions of the trust to give control of his global empire to his eldest and most conservative son, Lachlan, when he dies.

But if Murdoch succeeds, it would effectively sideline three of his more moderate children – James, Elisabeth and Prudence – who were meant to have equal shares and are fighting their father and brother to keep it that way.

Just don’t expect to see the ruling, says Alex Falconi, founder of Our Nevada Judges, a group dedicated to increasing transparency and public awareness of Nevada’s highly secretive legal system.

“They’ll seal the outcome so you won’t know the details,” says Falconi, whose group was one of several that took legal action trying, unsuccessfully, to get access to the case and the relevant documents.

“Nevada has a culture of secrecy going back to 1865 specific to domestic relations matters, and that’s one of the reasons it’s so difficult to get them to open the courts.”

For years, Reno was known as the “divorce capital of the world” offering fast and easy divorces to Hollywood celebrities and disgruntled couples who wanted a speedy dissolution of their marriage.

Urban legend has it that many newly single divorcees would leave the Washoe County Courthouse and immediately head one block north to the Virginia Street Bridge to toss their wedding rings into the Truckee River to celebrate their new-found freedom.

But Nevada is also considered one of the friendliest states in the US to set up a trust, with no state taxes imposed on trusts, low administrative costs and the ability to establish so-called “dynasty trusts” that can last for 365 years.

What’s more, documents are not required to be made public, ensuring sensitive family details and financial details remain confidential.

This makes Reno – America’s self-described “biggest little city” – the perfect backdrop for the Murdochs, who did not want any embarrassing revelations made public and would often enter the courthouse through a back door.

“This is the kind of case we would cover because it’s obviously of extreme public interest, not just in the US, but around the globe,” says Bob Conrad, the editor of local publication This Is Reno, which was unable to report on the hearings after Gorman sided with the Murdochs to keep the public out.

“It’s extremely concerning that there was this much secrecy surrounding it.”

It’s a strategy that seems to have worked, at least on the downtown streets surrounding the court. After the first day of proceedings, the media frenzy died down considerably given there was not much to report.

Indeed, almost everyone this masthead spoke to – from the waitress at the riverside restaurant, to the artist at the local gallery and the woman at Vegas-style wedding chapel next door – did not appear to know anything about the blockbuster case taking place a few hundred metres away.

“I didn’t even know it was happening until I picked up a lawyer from the court the other day and asked why there were so many SUVs on the street,” my Uber driver, Robert, tells me when I ask what residents thought about the legal battle playing out in their quirky, artsy town.

If Murdoch prevails in his quest to change the terms of his trust “in good faith”, it will ensure that Lachlan, whose views are said to align the most with his father’s, could control the family business without interference from his more moderate siblings.

Lachlan is now the chairman of News Corp, and the executive chairman and chief executive of Fox Corporation, following his father’s decision to stand down last year.

But if Murdoch loses the case, James – who has previously held fundraisers for President Joe Biden and was one of 88 corporate leaders who recently signed a letter endorsing Kamala Harris to replace him – could work with Prudence and Elisabeth to take the business in a more moderate direction.

The conventional wisdom is that such a shift could have significant implications on the political and media landscape, particularly in the US, where no other cable network has had as much influence as Fox over successive decades.

Established in 1996, Fox has shaped the parameters of Republican politics for years – most recently as a vehicle for Donald Trump’s brand of populist conservatism and as an occasional bullhorn for right-wing conspiracy theories.

Figures show it consistently beats its left-leaning cable news rivals, attracting an average 1.16 million viewers daily between 6am to 6pm, compared with 796,000 viewers at MSNBC and 463,000 at CNN.

But not everyone is convinced the direction of the company would change significantly, even with James at the helm.

“Part of the reason that Fox has been able to carve out its own niche within the cable news environment is because of its conservative programming and because of its tabloid style. So I just don’t see a lot of room for Fox to manoeuvre and become more liberal or more objective,” says A.J. Bauer, a professor at the University of Alabama who researches and analyses trends in conservative media.

“One other dynamic to throw into the mix is you’ve got channels like Newsmax [a pro-Trump cable network] that have been increasingly kind of trying to peel off Fox viewers from the rightward flank. If Fox were to basically try to reprogram or reform, I see Newsmax garnering larger audiences and possibly playing a bigger role within the competition.”

Rupert has also mounted a similar case in court, according to The New York Times, which obtained a confidential court document that exposed the few details known about the case so far.

His main argument to change the terms of the trust was that Lachlan’s conservative views are essential to the business success of the media empire. In turn, this would benefit the rest of the siblings.

But this legal argument was only made behind closed doors in front of Gorman, the 43-year-old probate commissioner whose job is now to weigh up the evidence and recommend a solution to the case.

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His recommendation will then go to a district court judge in Reno, who would typically follow it – but isn’t obligated to do so. If any party disagrees with the recommendation, they can object, which would force the district court judge to reconsider the matter, or they could appeal to a higher court.

To that end, the Murdoch family’s Succession-like drama may well have another season and several plot twists before its grand finale – and that is likely to be just as opaque.

“It’s one thing to care about secrecy,” says Falconi. “It’s another to be so extreme about it.”

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