Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel was executed by the air force of its Revolutionary Guard and was not an operation of the regular Iranian army or air force, according to Israeli sources. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was not informed of the attack until shortly before it began, the sources said, indicating that the Iranian regime is divided over the operation, which will probably add to the fractures in the government.

Israel’s ability to anticipate the Iranian strike and name the precise hour of the attack, and the fact that it was a Revolutionary Guard operation – not the regular Iranian armed forces under the command of the new president – demonstrates how deeply the Mossad, Israel’s cyber command, Unit 8200, and the Israeli air force have penetrated the Iranian regime and coordinated their defensive response. It means no Iranian leader can trust the other any more.

We may be about to enter what could be the most dangerous moment in the history of the modern Middle East: a ballistic missile war between Iran and Israel, which would almost certainly bring in the United States on Israel’s side and could culminate in a full-blown US-Israeli effort to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.

That is the assessment I have gleaned from talking to Israeli intelligence sources.

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The Iranian missiles were aimed at three targets. First, the headquarters of the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, near Tel Aviv. Second, the Israeli air base at Nevatim, and third, the Israeli air base at Khatzirim; both bases are in the south of Israel in the Negev desert. The Israeli officials are particularly concerned about any strike on Mossad headquarters because it is in the densely populated north Tel Aviv suburb of Ramat Hasharon. It is also not far from the Israeli defence intelligence headquarters, Unit 8200.

This information has been shared with me because the Israelis insist that they do not want a full-scale ballistic war with Iran and want the US to try to deter the Iranians by letting them know it will not be a bystander, and its response, unlike with the April 13 Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel, will not be purely defensive. In other words, Iran could be risking its entire nuclear program.

One might think that Israel is itching for this kind of war with Iran to finally take out its nuclear program and involve the US. That is not my impression. A war of ballistic missiles could do enormous damage to Israel’s infrastructure unless virtually every missile is intercepted.