Vance followed Trump’s wake in pounding the bedrock of this campaign – immigration – but without Trump’s venom. Harris, Trump says, is “letting in people in who are going to walk into your house, break into your door, and they’ll do anything they want. These people are animals … These are stone-cold killers.”

This election now hinges on who gets their voters out: the Trump forces who have had enough of Biden and Harris, or the Harris forces who have had enough of Trump’s chaos? It is the Trump vote that is more certain. His crowds know but do not care about the rude excesses and filth that Trump dispenses daily. Very simply, they want him in to do the things he says he will do, and they trust he will absolutely do them. Starting with the mass deportation of immigrants.

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As Peter Baker of The New York Times said last week, “His goal is to overwhelm you with voters”. Trump’s anger has evolved. Susan Glasser of The New Yorker added, “He is a much more negative and angry character than he was in 2020.”

But the growing intensity of Trump’s ever-darker rhetoric may, in fact, reflect internal concerns that Trump is faltering. Despite everything thrown at her, Harris has kept a consistent, steady lead nationally of between 3 and 5 percentage points. It is not a decisive lead beyond the margin of error. The seven swing states that will decide the Electoral College are all virtually tied, but Harris is in a stronger position in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – the trifecta that will get her elected if, unlike Hillary Clinton in 2016, she wins them all.

Harris has a much more aggressive get-out-the-vote ground game in more counties of more swing states than Trump. She is raking in much more money.

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No Democratic presidential candidate has ever been able to assemble a chorus as large as Republicans For Harris this year. Former Republican members of Congress and the cabinet have been buttressed by more than 100 former national security officials who served Reagan, both Bushes, and Trump.

As Harris works to close the deal with the coalition of moderate to liberal voters who backed Biden in 2020, there are headwinds. There is a ground war in Lebanon and a broader conflict with Iran now appears inevitable. That could cost Harris Michigan. There is a labour strike at ports on the east and gulf coasts of the US just as confidence in Harris’ ability to manage the economy has improved. Hurricane damage needs to be repaired. More troubles for the White House – and the woman who serves as vice president – to manage.

This debate will be judged a draw. Neither Walz nor Vance showed the righteous anger needed to eviscerate his opponent. But at the end of this ride, only one of them gets sworn to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.