Sign Up
..... Connect Australia with the world.
Categories

Posted: 2024-10-13 20:35:11

There had been a fair bit of anticipation built into Saturday's Ministry of Finance briefing in Beijing.

An earlier round of monetary policy easing from the Peoples' Bank of China was an indication that authorities wanted to get back on track towards GDP growth of 5%, or better, and markets took it as a nod and wink to go all in on a buying spree.

In three weeks, the Shanghai composite broke all sorts of records for daily moves and put on a spurt of 16% before easing back last week.

So, when the MoF's National Development and Reform Commission announced it would be holding a briefing on Saturday, market speculation was it would be a big, bold and expensive statement of intent.

The market had hoped Finance Minister Lin Fo'an would come out all guns blazing, Rambo-style, firing off something in the order of 3 to 5 trillion yuan ($A600 million to $A1trillion) from his so-called "fiscal bazooka".

What they got was a measured Mr Lin saying he had an arsenal at hand and would be prepared to use it. Not very Hollywood at all.

So, should the market be disappointed?

Not really, according to Societe Generale's highly rated China economics team of Wei Yao and Michelle Lam.

First of all, the pair points out view the expectation was misplaced because the NDRC, as a policy coordinator, doesn't have the authority over fiscal decisions.

Big spending decisions north of 1 trillion yuan can only be taken by the National Peoples' Congress (NPC) and it is unlikely to meet again before late October.

There will be another NDRC briefing coming up next weekend, but it is likely to disappoint again.

However, the Societe General team argues additional support measures of less than 1 trillion yuan can take place in the short term without increasing this year's bond issuance quota, as the government can tap into past fiscal savings and use un-utilised bond quotas in the past.

The most impacted markets looked through MoF-speak and saw positives.

The blue-chip Shanghai Shenzhen Index jumped 1.3% on Monday morning with its beaten-up property sector surging 3.2%, while big engineering and construction firms also made strong gains.

Iron ore was a bit softer on Monday's opening, but futures trading out of Singapore rebounded and was up 1% an hour or two later.

Australia's mining sector gained 1.6%, with the pure iron ore player Fortescue up almost 4%.

So how will it play out?

The ANZ China team of Zhaopeng Xing and Raymond Yeung say while China will eventually significantly increase debt, "the impact on growth and inflation will not be immediate."

"The replacement of existing implicit debts will not be translated into growth," the pair said.

The ANZ has left its China GDP forecasts of 4.9% for 2024 and 4.3% for 2025 unchanged

"With limited help for consumers, the stimulus package will be insufficient to ease China's deflation," Mr Xing and Mr Yeung noted.

The Societe General take is despite the lack of detail, the briefing reinforced the view that fiscal policy will be redirected to rebalancing to domestic demand.

"The Politburo meeting in September clearly signalled the shift from supply-side to demand-side, pledging to stabilise the housing sector, promote consumption and income of low-to-middle income groups and support employment," Ms Yao and Ms Lam wrote.

The pair added the MoF had every reason to be cautious, given the often irrational exuberance around the various stimulus packages that have been unleashed on the Chinese economy over time.

For the Societe Generale pair, success will hinge on "turning a mad bull into a long bull."

"The explosive rally before the holiday and the sharp correction after (on the back of some unrealistic expectations) for fiscal stimulus add to another dimension for Beijing to manage.

"Learning from the painful lesson in 2015, policymakers probably want to be extra careful with unsustainable momentum in the stock market.

There is a clear challenge to the policy communication — how to tame a mad bull? A chess game, n'est-ce pas? (trans: "isn't it so?")

"For short-term traders, it may be about one briefing/announcement at a time.

"But for long-term investors, we think the real question is whether Beijing is truly more committed to lift China out of the debt deflationary downward spiral.

"The signals since late September, including the underwhelming NDRC briefing, have all be on the right track."

View More
  • 0 Comment(s)
Captcha Challenge
Reload Image
Type in the verification code above