“The favourite (El Castello) has drawn the car park and that horse needs a lot of luck. Outside of the favourite, anything can win really,” Dee said on Friday.

“The horse I’m riding won last-start quite impressively and is a good, tough Derby type of horse, so I’m very happy.”

VRC Derby Day

First race: 12.20pm

Coolmore Stud Stakes: 3.40pm

VRC Derby: 4.20pm

TRACK: Good 4. RAIL: True. PATTERN: Fine and warm weather means trackman Liam O’Keeffe can present a near perfect surface with the rail back in the true position for the first since the September 14 meeting. As a rule of thumb when the north wind blows, as forecast, outside barriers are the place to be in straight races.

WEATHER: Saturday - mostly sunny, northerly winds 20-30km/h, top of 26C.

Race 7: $2m group 1 VRC Derby (2500m), 4.20pm

The favourite: El Castello ticks all boxes bar one – he has drawn barrier 18 of 18, which is so wide it practically puts him in the Maribyrnong River to start the race. Other than that, he is absolutely the horse to beat. He kicked off this campaign with a win in a Warwick Farm maiden over 1400m and since then, has won another three straight, holding off all comers in the group 1 Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m at Randwick last start. If he can get across to the front without using too many petrol tickets at the start of the race, he can win.

The threats: There is a sense of timing about King Of Thunder, who was the run of the race when finishing a nose third in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase behind Red Aces. Trainer John O’Shea has a skill of getting them right for Cup Week, and can be lethal when he legs super hoop James McDonald on board. Red Aces is a talented stayer for Nick Ryan, who was strong to the line winning the Vase, while there is little between Politely Dunn, China Sea, Keeneland and Goldrush Guru.

The outsiders: In one of the more open Derby events in recent memory, strong cases can also be made for the Matt Cumani-trained Kingofwallstreet, who beat China Sea and Keeneland home in the group 3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start, while Ciaron Maher’s Saint Emilion was a strong winner of the Geelong Classic (2200m).

Tim Habel

1st El Castello (No.1), 2nd Red Aces 2 (No.2), 3rd Goldrush Guru (No.4)

Habel says: El Castello is a class act and trainer Anthony Cummings has already prepared two Derby winners including Fiveandahalfstar (2012) which won on the same seven-day back-up this colt will attempt.

Danny Russell

1st King Of Thunder (No.8), 2nd El Castello (No.1), 3rd Politely Dun (No.7), 4th: Red Aces (No.2)

Russell says: A tough race in which a case can be made for half the field, I am settling on up-and-comer King Of Thunder, who put the writing on the wall with a strong third in the Moonee Valley Vase.

Race 6: $2m group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m), 3.40pm

The favourite: Growing Empire brings in the A-grade form, having run second in the group 1 Manikato Stakes and then third in The Everest against the older horses. He also has big-race rider Mark Zahra doing the steering. The one query is whether he has already had his grand finals.

The threats: There are a number of worthy challengers in a deep race. Golden Slipper-winning filly Lady Of Camelot ran a strong fourth in The Everest, a nose behind Growing Empire. Jamie Kah’s ride Traffic Warden was fancied to win The Everest before playing up in the barriers and being scratched before the race. If he behaves himself on Saturday, he can win. Trainer Chris Waller has won the Coolmore five times since 2013, and is confident his colt Switzerland will run well. Bellatrix Star has been beating the older horses.

The outsiders: Coleman finished second behind Switzerland at his last start and is three times the odds, while First Settler loves the Flemington straight and Bittercreek looks better than a 50-1 shot.

Tim Habel

Coolmore selections: 1st Traffic Warden (No.3), 2nd Growing Empire (No.1), 3rd Switzerland (No.5)

Habel says: Traffic Warden was a late scratching at the barrier from the $20m Everest, but that means he’s the fresh horse on the scene. Close second to stablemate Broadsiding in the Group 1 Golden Rose says he has the class.

Habel’s Derby Day best: Schwarz (Race 3, No 6) - Talented sprinter from Sydney reserved for our carnival. Proven fresh, most of his rivals have met their mark and looks suited in barrier 10.

Habel’s next best: El Castello (Race 7, No 1) - Sole Group 1 winner in the field, has the outside draw but on ratings he has lengths on this field.

Habel’s roughie: Alsephina (Race 8, No 7) - Classy WA mare gallant in defeat in the Toorak Handicap. Set for the race and has placed in all five 1600m starts, four in Group company.

Danny Russell

Coolmore selections: 1st Switzerland (No.5), 2nd Lady Of Camelot (No.13), 3rd Growing Empire (No.1), 4th Traffic Warden (No.3).

Russell says: Backing the trainer and the jockey - Chris Waller and James McDonald - as much as the horse here. Switzerland bounced back to form with an impressive two-length win in the group 2 Roman Consul last start.

Russell’s Derby Day best: Another Wil (Race 4, No.2) - Shaping as the story of Derby Day if star hoop Jamie Kah can win aboard a horse owned by her late mate Colin McKenna. The biggest danger is stablemate Jimmysstar. Have a saver on the quinella.

Russell’s next best: Schwarz (Race 3, No.6): No one sets a horse for Melbourne Cup week like John O’Shea. By all reports this horse has been flying.

Russell’s roughie: Chewing Gum (Race 2, No.14): Flies home late and is a decent chance in a wide-open race. Would love to hear trainer Matt Hill call, ‘Chewing Gum sticking to the rail’.

Derby Day quaddie: 1st leg: 1, 2, 3, 5, 13, 14. 2nd leg: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11. 3rd leg: 1, 2, 3. 4th leg: 3.