In a tight race like this, counting can continue well past election night, and we might not know the winner for several days.

Results in some states will be known quite quickly, while other counts could drag on for days. We’ll probably get the first results from some eastern states within hours of the polls closing at 10am Wednesday (AEDT). The results will keep rolling in through to Wednesday evening from the east to west coasts.

The slower counts that could delay the result by days will be in the tight swing state races.

The first results from a swing state will probably be from Georgia, where state law requires that all early votes be counted and reported at 8pm on election night, which is midday Wednesday AEDT.

We’ll probably have results from North Carolina and Arizona by the pointy end of election night, from 3pm AEDT.

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Nevada has updated its vote count rules but could still face a multi-day delay in delivering a result, as it did in 2020. It’s a similar situation in Michigan.

In Wisconsin, pundits are predicting delays that will see the first results delivered the day after the election, so that’s Thursday AEDT.

The crucial vote in Pennsylvania is likely to take a lot longer to deliver a result, possibly several days. It is one of a few states that does not allow election workers to begin processing mail-in votes until election day.

Considered the tipping point state that could win the election for either candidate, we could see a repeat of 2020, where the election couldn’t be called until the Pennsylvania vote was confirmed four days after the poll.

What happens after a winner is announced?

Usually, when a winner is confirmed, the loser concedes to the victor, who informally becomes the president-elect. In 2016, the result returned quickly, with Hillary Clinton conceding to Donald Trump the morning after the election.

In 2020, the results confirmed Joe Biden had won the election four days after the poll, but Donald Trump initially refused to concede.

In the 2024 vote, official work will continue into December, with all electors confirmed by December 11, and those electors casting their votes on December 17.

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On January 6, 2025, a joint session of the House and the Senate tallies the electoral college voters, presided over by Vice President Kamala Harris. This means it will fall to Harris to formally announce the result, whether she wins or loses, in a ceremony that happens to coincide with the fourth anniversary of the January 6 Capitol riots.

On January 6, 2021, thousands of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to overturn his 2020 election loss. This happened after he told his supporters to “fight like hell”. Trump has continued to erroneously claim he won the 2020 election. There are fears similar riots could take place if Trump loses in 2024.

The inauguration of the newly elected president takes place in late January.

Who is likely to win?

The polls are neck and neck, so it’s impossible to say who is more likely to win. But polling has been wrong before, so there is also a chance that the election will not be as close as it seems, in either candidate’s favour.

Where can I watch US election coverage?

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age will be live blogging the election around the clock this week, all the way until we have a result, and beyond.

All Australian networks will have wall-to-wall coverage of the election on Wednesday, and most likely beyond. The dedicated programming begins at 10am on Channel Nine, Network Ten and ABC. Seven’s coverage begins at 11.30am.

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