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Posted: 2024-11-14 00:55:26

Australia's unemployment rate remained steady in October, at 4.1 per cent, as the number of employed people increased by 15,900, in seasonally adjusted terms.

But economists say the pace of employment growth was noticeably slower last month than in previous months, and it may be the start of a slowing trend.

They say the Reserve Bank will not be surprised by the numbers.

The RBA is forecasting the unemployment rate to creep up to 4.3 per cent by the end of this year, and a slowdown in the pace of employment growth would be in line with those forecasts.

New data this week showed wages growth in Australia slowed to an annual pace of 3.5 per cent in the September quarter, down dramatically from 4.1 per cent in the June quarter.

Two weeks ago, inflation data showed the annual pace of headline inflation fell to 2.8 per cent in the September quarter, down from 3.8 per cent.

"It suggests the labour market will not grow jobs quite as quickly as it has been, " EY Oceania chief economist Cherelle Murphy said of the jobs figures on Thursday.

"If that all continues to fall into place and importantly inflation comes down, I think the Reserve Bank will start cutting interest rates in the first quarter or second quarter of next year, but so much depends on the price behaviour.

"In the last few weeks we have had huge interruptions to the global economic scene with the election of [Donald] Trump, and I know the Reserve Bank is keen to see how that falls into the first part of next year when president-elect Trump takes office.

"There is a lot going on, the Reserve Bank [will] take it easy, take the time and I think that will continue," she said.

Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data show the number of people in full-time employment increased by 9,700 in October, while part-time employment increased by 6,200, in seasonally adjusted terms.

It brought the total growth in employment to 15,900.

In September, employment increased by 61,300. In August, it rose by 45,800. In July, it rose by 49,400. In June, it rose by 48,500.

Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said while employment grew in October, the 0.1 per cent increase was the slowest growth in recent months.

"This was lower than each of the previous six months, when employment rose by an average of 0.3 per cent per month," he said.

Ms Murphy said the overall ongoing strength of the labour market had been "surprising," but the RBA was trying to engineer a "soft landing" in the economy and things did seem to be heading that way.

"For the most part, that's what we're seeing," she told the ABC.

"We do have a relatively good jobs market at the same time that we've got inflation coming down.

"Now unfortunately, it's not coming down quite as quickly as the Reserve Bank would like, but I think we can expect those inflation numbers to get a little bit better, hopefully the unemployment rate to stay relatively low, roundabout these levels, and that will eventually of course lead to a situation where the Reserve Bank might be able to cut the interest rate a little bit and give us some relief there too," Ms Murphy said.

Ivan Colhoun, CreditorWatch chief economist, said these employment numbers would be welcomed by the government.

He said underemployment and youth unemployment — very sensitive indicators of the state of the labour market — had even been trending lower recently.

"That never occurs with a weak labour market and suggests the least-experienced and those on reduced hours against their wishes, continue to find employment," he said.

"Overall, the unemployment rate remains very low and recently stable at 4.1 per cent — a very pleasing level for the government, one that will allow the RBA more time to see inflation improve, and one that will allow consumers to service their debts, even though the first rate cut will now likely not be before the June quarter of 2025," he said.

But BDO Economics partner Anders Magnusson said the slow growth of new jobs and wages was occurring in a complicated economic context and it may lead to the RBA missing its forecasts.

"Today's steady unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent suggests that the RBA's forecast of 4.3 per cent in the December 2024 quarter may be an overestimate," he warned.

"The RBA won't be pleased as a weakening to 4.2 per cent would have indicated that the cash rate was adequately restrictive. Unlike other advanced economies, Australia continues to maintain a strong labour market.

"A rate hold is all but guaranteed for the RBA's last cash rate call of the year.

"I expect the RBA to continue with its cautionary approach of holding the cash rate until it is satisfied that underlying annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation is sustainably within the target band of 2 to 3 per cent," he said.

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