Brain and brawn in the backline

Outside of France, Scotland have the best backline in the Six Nations. On the wing, South African import Duhan van der Merwe finished as joint highest try-scorer in this year’s tournament with five, and he combines pace with immense physical strength.

At fullback or wing, Blair Kinghorn plays his club rugby for French giants Toulouse and works seamlessly with van der Merwe to break down opposition defences.

The centre partnership of Australian-raised skipper Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones is built around each player’s strengths. Tuipulotu runs at faces, while Jones seeks spaces. Both players are strong distributors and completely settled as a partnership, giving confidence to the players outside them.

The defensive reads of the Wallabies’ centre pairing in Len Ikitau and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii will be stretched to their limits. Jones loves to offload, and the rampaging Tuipulotu is never far from his shoulder.

Scrum depth

Scotland’s game is built on their backline, but with rain forecast in Edinburgh on Sunday (Monday, 12.40am, AEDT) there will be a renewed focus on their forwards. Their two starting props, loose-head Pierre Schoeman and tight-head Zander Fagerson, are highly likely to tour Australia next year as part of the British and Irish Lions squad.

Fagerson will compete directly with Ireland’s Tadhg Furlong for a starting role with the Lions, and his clash in the scrum with Angus Bell will be pivotal on Sunday. Bell did not have his best game in last week’s 32-point victory against Wales, giving away two scrum penalties against international rookie Archie Griffin.

Fagerson will be a considerable step-up in class, but if Bell can limit his impact, then it will provide a huge boost to the Wallabies’ chances of winning at Murrayfield.

Like the Wallabies, Scotland do not have strong depth in the props beyond their starters. In their 32-15 defeat to South Africa two weeks ago, replacement tight-head Elliot Millar Mills was completely exposed in the scrum.

Wallabies scrum coach Mike Cron will be working overtime to crank up the pressure on the set piece late in the game, when their weaker prop replacements arrive and Scotland are at their most vulnerable.

Consistently inconsistent

Scotland have shown their ability to compete with the world’s best sides, particularly in the defeat to the Springboks. They had chances to win the game and their smaller pack refused to be bullied.

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But, like the Wallabies, Scotland have developed an unwanted reputation for winning against more vaunted opponents, then backing it up with a disappointing loss in their next game.

In the 2024 Six Nations, Scotland finished fourth after beating England by nine points then losing to Italy in Rome in their next game. They also had chances to beat France and Ireland, but fell just short.

South Africa aside, Scotland have had little in the way of high-level opposition since the Six Nations. In July, they toured the Americas, facing Canada, the United States, Chile and Uruguay, while November victories over Fiji and Portugal have given them a chance to build more depth.

Conversely, the Wallabies are battle-hardened after a gruelling Rugby Championship and back-to-back victories over England and Wales. Scotland showed little evidence of ring rust against the Springboks, but they are facing an Australian side with renewed confidence and momentum.

Today’s Scotland are similar to the French teams of the 1980s: they attack from all over the field and exploit gaps in their opponent’s defence if given the chance. Their willingness to take risks also can be utilised against them. The Wallabies will want to force Russell into unnecessary plays and look out for intercepts to gobble up.

Scotland’s smaller forward pack can no longer be dominated as it once was, but it can be ground down. The influence of Will Skelton could be significant in shunting mauls forward on the softer Murrayfield turf. The Wallabies face an extremely difficult Test, but they will be competitive and are playing to keep their grand slam alive going into the final leg.