Musk has not been particularly aggressive about pushing his preferred names for administration roles. But his tech-world orbit is emboldened and widely seen as influential.

Mick Mulvaney, who served as Trump’s second chief of staff and now works at a lobbying firm, Actum, has told clients that tech executives are likely to have extraordinary access.

“Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, David Sacks, Joe Lonsdale and other tech leaders are influencing Trump’s preparations for his second term, something which no other business leaders have been able to do at this level in past presidential elections,” reads a presentation shared by Mulvaney with clients, which was seen by The New York Times.

But Mulvaney, a former director of the Office of Management and Budget, has sounded sceptical about Musk’s ability to deliver on his promised budget cuts.

He recently told clients on a call with about 70 people that Musk would find out that “going to Mars is easier,” according to a person who was listening and described the call. Mulvaney, the person added, said that he did not envision a wholesale change of how the federal government did business and that he doubted Musk would stick around to actually get it done.

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The tech leaders whom Mulvaney highlighted are indeed firmly in the transition conversation.

Several friends of Musk’s have been spotted at Mar-a-Lago in recent days, including Andreessen, Lonsdale and Ken Howery. Lonsdale, a founder of Palantir, has told peers that he was being considered for multiple roles, including secretary of education, but that he declined to move forward, wanting to stick to his business career and private philanthropy. Sacks, another friend of Musk’s, has also been involved in the Trump transition, joining calls and spending time at Mar-a-Lago in recent days, according to two people briefed on his activities.

Other tech executives have been scrambling to broker introductions to Musk or his proxies. Across Silicon Valley, interest in serving in the Department of Government Efficiency is high. Brian Armstrong, the chief executive of Coinbase, described that work on social media this week as “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to increase economic freedom in the US and cut the size of government back to health.” Musk has been canvassing friends for their interest in formal administration roles, according to a person briefed on his outreach.

Musk successfully pushed for Brendan Carr, a Republican, to be picked to lead the Federal Communications Commission – a “great choice,” the billionaire wrote after the announcement – although Carr had always been seen as the favourite. And Musk has pushed Trump to bring back Russell Vought, another budget director in Trump’s first term, according to a person briefed on the matter.

But Musk’s early record also has its blemishes. He pushed for Emil Michael, a former top Uber executive, to be the next transportation secretary, only for Michael to lose out to Sean Duffy, a former member of Congress from Wisconsin. Duffy was backed by Susie Wiles, who will become Trump’s chief of staff in January, and Reince Priebus, the president-elect’s onetime chief of staff, according to a person briefed on the process.

Musk also made a very public push for Trump to choose Howard Lutnick, the chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, as his Treasury secretary. The president-elect ultimately declined, instead picking Lutnick for commerce secretary. And Musk was a vociferous defender of former congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida, who on Thursday withdrew as Trump’s pick for attorney-general.

Trump’s aides are divided on Musk’s role. Some see him as relatively harmless, and he is close with Stephen Miller, a top policy aide. Others have chafed at his near-constant presence at Mar-a-Lago, especially given his lack of personal history with Trump.

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So it is notable that Musk has appeared concerned about the perception of his influence. On Wednesday, in response to a headline describing him as Trump’s “closest confidant,” the tech billionaire went out of his way to praise “the large number of loyal, good people at Mar-a-Lago who have worked for him for many years.”

“To be clear, while I have offered my opinion on some cabinet candidates, many selections occur without my knowledge, and decisions are 100% that of the President,” he wrote on X.

It appeared to be recognition of a well-known lesson in Trumpworld: Don’t outshine the boss. At least if you want to stay awhile.

Mulvaney’s advice for Musk? Be a straight shooter with Trump because “there are plenty of people who will feel the need to agree with him all the time.”

“What makes Musk such a valuable adviser,” Mulvaney told the Times in an interview, “is that he has enough money – and enough other things to do – that he is uniquely situated to be the bearer of honest news. More than perhaps anybody else on the planet, he doesn’t need the job.”