When Michael Cox was 17 and paddling out for a surf, another surfer collided with him and struck him in the head. After three weeks on life support and six months in hospital he was left with permanent brain damage that harmed his speech.

“It was a major deal – I’ve got a hole in my head,” Cox says. “It’s been hard.”

Now 50, Cox says he understands everything but struggles to make himself understood. After a lifetime of part-time, casual positions, interspersed with long spells of unemployment, he started working at Thora mill near Bellingen a month ago. He has already proven himself a good worker, his bosses say.

“It’s the first time in my life that I’ve got a full-time job; it’s been hard to find a full-time gig,” Cox says. “It’s going well, I’m happy and everyone else is happy, they don’t judge me.”

If the mill closes, Cox expects to be unemployed again.

Thora mill provides stable employment for 32 people, many of whom fear they would struggle to find other work. Like many in the region, their fate hinges for better or worse on the NSW government’s imminent decision about the Great Koala National Park.

Creating the park by adding state forests to 140,000 hectares of existing national parks was an election promise, but a lot is riding on the size. An extra 176,000 hectares is under assessment for possible inclusion. The industry wants a much smaller footprint.

Many people on the Mid North Coast are looking forward to the park and want as much forest protected as possible. The environmental case is strong – recent thermal drone surveys suggest the assessment area is home to about 12,000 koalas, as well as other endangered species such as greater gliders. Scientists say better connectivity between the forests will ensure it is better able to withstand climate change.

‘I’ll happily take a job farming koalas but I can’t see that happening.’

Andrew West, Thora mill employee

There are many people, too, who are eagerly anticipating the park as a driver of tourism – an industry that employs roughly twice as many people as forestry and timber processing in the Coffs-Grafton area alone.

Yet every decision has winners and losers. The creation of the park has long been opposed by the Coalition in favour of other koala conservation work, and National MPs say “there already is a koala park – it’s called state forests”.

On the line are hundreds if not thousands of jobs. Forestry and related industries, including wood and paper processing, accounted for 958 jobs in the Coffs-Grafton region in the last census. That is about 2 per cent of jobs in the region.

An Ernst & Young report, commissioned by the hardwood industry, says it is directly responsible for 5700 jobs in North-East NSW – a broad region, extending from the Hawkesbury River in the south to the Queensland border and inland to Armidale. That includes jobs in plantations.

The Great Koala National Park assessment area is much smaller, spanning from north of Kempsey to around Grafton, but the industry argues that jobs across the whole region will be at risk from constrained wood supply.

NSW Forestry Corporation regional manager Dean Caton says change has been a constant theme for the industry, and his “staff have been pretty resilient through that” and will continue to enact the policies of the government.

Australian Workers’ Union NSW branch secretary Tony Callinan says forestry workers are “extremely worried about their future”, both for their own jobs and their communities.

The Australian Forest Products Association estimates there are about 50 small-to-medium mills in the north-east region similar to Thora mill. Without a supply of wood, they must either close down or import timber.

Thora mill manager Brook Waugh, whose grandfather started the business, says he has “no confidence whatsoever to invest anything in our sawmill” given the political climate.

“Basically, we’ll be starved out, meaning you just won’t get enough [timber] and it’ll become unviable and you’ll just shut the doors,” Waugh says. “That’s my fear. The greenies have been given so much over the years, and no matter how much they get, it’s never enough.”

Waugh says the proposed size of the park is “ridiculous” and the koalas are “thriving”.

His sister Shannon Scott, who manages the book work in the office, says the family feels “huge pressure” to keep the mill going.

“We feel like we have an obligation to all the workers,” Scott says. “You don’t want to see anyone lose their job and go hungry because a lot of them are unskilled workers, and I don’t know how easily they would find jobs in the region, and I don’t know how suitable those jobs would be for them.”

Andrew West, 58, who has worked for Thora mill for 24 years, is sceptical about any claims that the Great Koala National Park would create jobs. “I’ll happily take a job farming koalas, but I can’t see that happening,” says West.

“I quite like the job I have. It will really disappoint me the day when this is going to close. I’d hoped it would see me through to retirement.”

Australian Forest Products Association NSW chief executive James Jooste says the industry wants an immediate decision to end the uncertainty.

“The longer the government takes to make that decision, the greater the human cost will be,” Jooste says.

The forestry industry has put forward a case for $1.35 billion in compensation if the park is 176,000 hectares, but only $271 million if it is 37,000 hectares.

The Australian Climate and Biodiversity Foundation, chaired by former Treasury secretary Ken Henry, claims these figures are inflated by at least $300 million by exaggerating the cost of wood buyouts and land management services under NPWS.

“Native forest logging businesses are either trying to scare the NSW government with inflated costs to force them to break an election promise or line their pockets with unjustified buyouts at taxpayers’ expense,” Henry says.

Environmentalists are hanging out for a quick decision, too, since logging has continued within the assessment area since the election. The longer the park is delayed, they say, the greater the destruction.

Forestry Corp for its part says logging in native forests involves selective harvesting, and both its employees and contractors adhere to strict environmental regulations. Any breaches, Caton says, result from the complexity of the rules and are regretted.

For Gumbaynggirr elders Uncle Micklo Jarrett and Aunty Alison Buchanan, protection of their Country cannot come soon enough.

“The whole world should be Great Koala National Park,” Jarrett says. “While we’re talking, talking, talking, the Forestry is still in there smashing down the trees.”

Buchanan tears up as she says: “I want people to know that this is our everything.”

Not all Gumbaynggir people share the same views, with jobs in both forestry and forest protection. On the Coffs Coast, nearly one in four NPWS employees are Aboriginal, while there are Indigenous tourism businesses such as the Giingan Gumbaynggirr Cultural Experience, but there are also many Indigenous people employed in timber harvesting and processing.

As part of the planning for the new park, NPWS has been consulting the community about the desired uses, such as mountain biking and four-wheel-driving.

The agency has simultaneously been investing in its existing parks on the Mid North Coast. Glenn Storrie, NPWS manager Coffs Coast area, says this ranges from a refresh of the Dorrigo Rainforest Centre and accessible boardwalk to the development of a multi-day Dorrigo Escarpment Great Walk.

“During COVID, people really discovered the importance of natural areas, and we’re very mindful of the role we play,” says Storrie. “Conservation is at the core but in addition to that we’re providing opportunities for people to get away and de-stress.”

Environment Minister Penny Sharpe has consistently described the forthcoming Great Koala National Park as a boon for tourism in the region. In the last census, the Coffs-Grafton region had 1860 jobs in tourism-related industries – not including food services – making up nearly 4 per cent of employment.

Michael Thurston, general manager of Destination North Coast, says tourism businesses are excited about the creation of the park. He expects strong promotion by state and national bodies, and says it will raise the international profile of the region, which can be overlooked in favour of Byron Bay further north.

“Nature-based tourism is the No.1 driver of visitation to the north coast, and this product leans really heavily into that,” Thurston says. “It’s going to be a first-class asset, protecting an iconic species in a truly spectacular part of the world.”

Chris Fenech, owner of HWH Stables in the Orara Valley, runs horse-riding tours in the rainforest and nearby beaches, and says his business will be a direct beneficiary of a new attraction for NSW and Australia.

“For a little business like mine, anything that puts a highlight on the Mid North Coast or further down into this little area can only be a good thing,” Fenech says. “It’s not only going to attract tourism visitors, but along the way put a focus on the conservation and protection of flora and fauna, particularly our lovely koalas, which are in rapid decline.”

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