Will this be a reset moment for the Biden campaign? Trump may be the first US president convicted of a crime, but it is Biden who desperately needs a “get out of jail” card. More than 70 per cent of voters believe Biden is too old to serve a second term. Just like here in Australia, inflation and cost-of-living pressures are hurting American households across the country, and there is no relief in sight from punitive interest rates. In North Carolina, a voter told PBS: “I vote for Democrats all the time. I voted for Joe Biden. My life hasn’t changed for the better.”
Trump keeps pushing his favourite hot buttons – immigration and crime. They cut into Biden’s standing. Seventy per cent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. Wars are raging. Biden is losing support for his leadership on the Israel-Gaza war. Ukraine is on the defensive against Russia more than two years after Biden forged the coalition with NATO to repulse Putin. All of this translates into an approval rating for Biden that is, at best, in the high-30s – 10 points below where he needs to be to win the election.
More than 70 per cent of voters believe Biden is too old to serve a second term. Credit: Bloomberg
Many Democrats are in a “freakout” on Biden’s prospects, a deep fear that he is losing badly.
The reset moment for Biden that he wants and needs is the debate with Trump on June 27 (June 28, AEST). Biden must project confidence and command. He has to counter Trump’s blows and bullying and show he is unfit to return to the White House – that he is a danger to America’s democracy and, equally important, is so extreme that he is out of the mainstream of where the country is and how it wants to face the future.
Biden’s success in reversing the polarity of the race will hinge on two factors: the polls – whether he can close the gap with Trump in the swing states – and the sentiment of Democratic Party leaders. To date, not one Democratic senator or governor or member of the House leadership has called on Biden to stand aside, open up the Democratic convention in August, and let the party coalesce around another dynamic leader to take the fight to Trump and beat him.
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Shortly after the debate, Trump will be sentenced in the courtroom where he faced justice, seated below Judge Juan Merchan, who had control over Trump’s life for the past 60 days. The four words “Donald Trump, convicted felon” will be repeated infinite times from now to November. Joe Biden will effectively ask the American people, “Do you want a Commander in Chief, or a Defendant in Chief. Will a convicted felon take the oath of office for the presidency again? You choose.”
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
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