“It’s just a matter of when it’s going to arrive,” Wille says.

The risk to human health remains low and the people most likely to be infected are livestock and poultry workers, federal Health Minister Mark Butler says. Vaccines are available for those who contract the virus.

“The interim Australian Centre for Disease Control is working very closely with other Commonwealth, state and territory agencies to ensure Australia is as prepared as possible for any potential case of the H5N1 strain,” Butler says.

Thousands of volunteers, researchers and public servants have already been deployed into the real world to look out for dead birds and take biological samples from migratory species that may have carried the virus to our shores.

In the case of an outbreak, wildlife cannot be treated once infected with the H5N1 virus, but the spread can be limited by swift responses such as picking up carcasses of infected animals, preventing farmed poultry from mixing with wild birds, and not feeding wild birds.

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There may also be potential to shield endangered species, for example by taking some of those most at risk into captivity to ensure species survival.

Invasive Species Council policy analyst Carol Booth says war-gaming biosecurity incursions is common for primary industries, like foot and mouth disease in livestock, but has never before been applied to an environment scenario like wild birds with the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

“The government commissioned a risk assessment of this virus, which came up with the rating of potential catastrophic impact. That’s a fair description of the impacts elsewhere,” Booth says.

The Albanese government allocated $7 million to prepare for an H5N1 incursion, largely drawn from existing funds. Environmental advocates are calling for a massive funding boost to increase the ground effort to help stop the spread in case of an outbreak, and reduce the impacts on wildlife.

“There’s been very little funding for the wildlife side of it so far. You can’t do a lot without an extra injection of funding,” Booth says.

Australian Marine Conservation Society campaigner Alexia Wellbelove says Australian sea lions, an endangered species, are particularly vulnerable to bird flu because they live in one location their entire life.

“If you lose any individuals, you’re losing a significant genetic diversity in the population,” Wellbelove says.

“It’s not just Australian sea lions, there’s other seals, seabirds and marine species.”