Richmond fans and the coach alike were fuming on Friday night - but a dose of common sense is needed.

Plus why back-to-back Brisbane Brownlows are on the cards, and footy’s “most misunderstood rule” rears its head again.

Catch up on the big storylines out of the weekend in Foxfooty.com.au’s Round 10 Talking Points.

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TIGERS’ FREE KICK WHINGE IS SIMPLY WRONG

If you’d listened to Twitter on Friday night, you would’ve thought Richmond was a free kick away from beating Brisbane.

Heck, if you’d listened to Damien Hardwick at halftime, you would’ve thought so too.

“Six to 21 free kicks mate, it’s pretty hard to win the ball when you’re either second to it or the count isn’t going our way,” the triple premiership coach told Channel 7.

He wasn’t wrong; the Tigers were behind in that stat. But he chose not to cite other statistics, such as Brisbane’s 37-19 inside 50s lead, or 21-11 clearance lead, or 83-57 contested possession lead.

The Lions went on to win quite comfortably, off the back of dominating the latter three categories. And Hardwick’s comments play into the great fallacy of footy: that the free kick count really matters.

In the book Footballistics, author James Coventry and his team analysed which statistics are most closely correlated with winning.

For example, between 2007 and 2017, the team that won the inside 50 count won the game 74.2 per cent of the time; if you’re winning the territory battle, you’re more likely to win the game.

What about free kicks? Well, the team that won the free kick count won the game 52.4 per cent of the time. That’s barely better than flipping a coin to tip a winner; even being the team that had more smothers (52.5 per cent) was more predictive.

So what does this tell us? Obviously free kicks - or non-free kicks - can be incredibly decisive. Just ask Melbourne fans. But overall it barely matters if you win or lose the free kick count; and there’s certainly nothing in the rules that says the count has to be even.

The funny thing is, Richmond has proven that better than anyone.

In their current dynastic era, the Tigers have always given away more free kicks than they’ve received. In 2017, 2018 and 2021 so far, they ranked 18th for free kick differential - the gap between the frees they received and the frees they gave away. They were 17th last year, and 13th in 2018.

Has that mattered? Obviously not. Richmond has won three flags in four years despite never getting ‘the rub of the green’ in the free kick count.

The common wisdom is that teams who are first to the ball win more free kicks, because they put themselves in positions to be awarded them. The Tigers aren’t the best contested ball team, and in recent years have prioritised winning the ball on turnover and applying manic pressure.

That manic pressure, and playing on the edge, means Richmond plays a risky style of footy. But the risks generally pay off, because if they don’t give away a free, they find themselves in an advantageous position.

We complain about free kicks because it’s an understandable emotional response. But for the most part, it’s just not rational.

Stop worrying about free kicks, Richmond fans. You too, Dimma.

BACK-TO-BACK BRISBANE BROWNLOWS?

The Brisbane Lions could go back-to-back ... in the Brownlow Medal.

After Lachie Neale stormed to a comprehensive 10-vote win in 2020, St Kilda great Leigh Montagna believes smooth-moving Lion Hugh McCluggage is a genuine 2021 Brownlow contender.

The 23-year-old is in career-best form, averaging 26 disposals, five inside 50s and 430m gained. Since Round 4, he’s finished with 100-plus Champion Data ranking points.

Five-time premiership Hawk Dermott Brereton told Fox Footy’s Saturday Countdown that McCluggage’s performance against Richmond on Friday night (27 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 9 inside 50s, 9 score involvements and 7 clearances) was the best he’d ever produced.

Speaking on Fox Footy’s First Crack on Friday night, Montagna said McCluggage was an “absolute Brownlow contender”.

“We know Lachie Neale dominated last year, I absolutely think Hugh McCluggage can win the Brownlow this year,” Montagna told First Crack.

“His only issue is his goalkicking. If he can convert, he’s the complete package. He’s having an outstanding season and he’s now getting the recognition.

“Just going through the games, he’s up to 13 or 14 Brownlow votes by my calculations.

“His run started against Collingwood (Round 3) – if he wasn’t best on ground he was close – the Essendon game in the wet behind Lachie Neale, he was best on ground a couple of weeks ago against Carlton and Port Adelaide, he could’ve polled in the previous two weeks and he’s vying with Dayne Zorko for another three votes (against Richmond).”

Montagna pointed out that McCluggage traditionally hadn’t been a big vote-getter in past years, but added there tended to be a one-year “lag period” for umpires to recognise a star’s rise.

“I think last year McCluggage announced himself as an absolute star. There’s that lag period from the umpires and I think they’ll recognise him too,” Montagna said.

Lions captain Dayne Zorko said McCluggage had been “outstanding” in 2021.

“It really was built off the back of his pre-season. He came back in probably the best shape he‘s been in,” Zorko told Fox Footy’s Saturday Countdown.

“His hands are so clean, but he has so much drive as well. It doesn‘t look like he’s moving that fast, but he’s extremely quick and he’s obviously got the polish and the touch around the field.”

IS THE RACE FOR THE EIGHT DOWN TO TEN?

Some people will say it’s too early to declare seasons are over. They just haven’t learned from history.

With 10 rounds now complete, we have almost half of the season in the books, and it means we can start to write off some teams from the top eight mix.

Yes, there are always exceptions, but the overwhelming weight of history is against any team that sits 3-7 or worse. Since 1995, only eight per cent of 3-7 teams have gone on to play finals; no 2-8 team has ever made the top eight.

It’s also extremely difficult to play finals from 4-6; just 16 per cent of those teams have done it. That may surprise you - after all, you can look at the ladder and say any of the 4-6 teams are just one win outside of the eight.

But remember that you almost always need to win 12 games to play finals. So from 4-6, you need to go 8-4. And it’s bloody hard to go 8-4 - you need to be one of the best five or six teams over that period, at least, to do it.

So if you’re a fan of Carlton, Adelaide, St Kilda or Essendon, we’re sorry, but history is against you.

In the Saints’ case, their horrendous percentage of 72.6 basically gives them an extra loss to overcome, so they’re in extra trouble.

What about the other records? 5-5 starters (GWS, Richmond, Fremantle) have converted it into a finals appearance 45 per cent of the time; at 6-4 (Sydney, West Coast), the rate jumps up to 74 per cent, at 7-3 (Geelong, Brisbane, Port Adelaide) it’s 89 per cent.

FOOTY’S ‘MOST MISUNDERSTOOD RULE’ BREEDS MORE CONFUSION

Thankfully for the holding the ball rule, it didn’t draw quite as much attention this week - that went to the deliberate out of bounds rule, instead.

But it’s still leaving fans, players and coaches baffled, especially when it comes to how to solve the problems most believe the rule creates.

Richmond coach Damien Hardwick added fuel to the fire late last week when he suggested the removal of prior opportunity, but he didn’t have everyone’s support.

“I fear what that game would look like,” Power coach Ken Hinkley said of the idea on 3AW.

It‘s also perhaps not surprising that Hardwick, whose Tigers don’t prioritise getting to the ball first, would be supportive of a rule that works against players who get to the ball first.

St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna believes the core of the problem is that the rule is “the most misunderstood” in footy.

“Everyone has their own interpretation of what is prior opportunity, incorrect disposal, but that only counts if you‘ve had prior,” he said on Fox Footy’s First Crack.

“You’re allowed to have incorrect disposal as long as you’re making an attempt. You’re allowed to drop the ball, it’s still part of the game if you haven’t had prior, now there are commentators saying that’s holding the ball.”

He also warned the potential repercussions of implementing Hardwick’s desired rule change.

“And you‘ve got to be careful, because if you start paying free kicks (against) every player who gets the ball and straight away, they try and make an attempt whether it’s to fend of get rid of it and they drop it, if you just pay holding the ball, you know what players will start doing? They’ll get the ball, they’ll know they’re getting tackled, and they’ll hold it in. They’ll lock it in and it’ll be a ball-up.

“So we might get more stoppages - sit back, I think take a deep breath and wait until the end of the year to have a real conversation.”