Add Category
Updated advice from the Doherty Institute, emphasising “caution” in lifting public health restrictions once 70% of the population over the age of 16 is vaccinated, will be presented to national cabinet on Friday.
Guardian Australia understands the update, to be considered by leaders, suggests that coronavirus epidemics will continue to happen locally, and, increasingly, in under-vaccinated pockets of the Australian community, even when national vaccination rates are higher than 70%.
The expert epidemiological modelling underpins a four-phase plan for Australia to reopen once vaccination rates increase. Leaders will meet virtually again on Friday afternoon after a week of robust community debate about the safety of a national reopening plan.
Scott Morrison has spent the parliamentary sitting week attempting to build political momentum for easing restrictions. He’s declared the strategy “the safe plan to ensure that Australia can open up again with confidence”.
But some state and territory leaders have pushed back vigorously against pre-emptive easing given Delta infections continue to rise, particularly among unvaccinated young people. The current national vaccination targets exclude people under the age of 16.
New South Wales on Thursday reported a new daily record of 1,029 coronavirus cases while Victoria reported 80, with half those cases in the community while infectious. The Australian Capital Territory reported 14.
The NSW chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, acknowledged infections in Australia’s most populous state “may well go way above a thousand cases”.
On Thursday evening, the Morrison government was due to adopt final advice from the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation green-lighting vaccinations for 12 to 15-year-olds. Once supplies of Pfizer and Moderna allows, jabs will be given concurrently with adults, initially by general practitioners.
Friday’s national cabinet meeting will discuss the looming rollout of vaccines to children and teenagers, consider the updated Doherty advice, and also consider the first cut of work that the governments of Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have prepared detailing options on how restrictions can be eased for vaccinated Australians once rates hit 70%.
Some states want children under 16 included formally in the vaccination targets in the four-phase reopening plan. But Morrison said on Thursday, given Australia was administering 1.8m doses in a week, the current rollout had the capacity to vaccinate 12 to 15-year-olds “in parallel” with the population aged 16 and over.
Sign up to receive the top stories from Guardian Australia every morning
While claiming that 12 to 15-year-olds can expect to be vaccinated “in the weeks and months ahead”, Morrison has so far declined to specify a precise timetable for the rollout for teenagers.
On Thursday Labor’s shadow health minister, Mark Butler, said it “doesn’t make sense” that 12 to 15-year-olds were not counted towards targets and said Morrison “at the very least needs to tell parents” what proportion would be vaccinated before restrictions were eased.
The updated Doherty modelling includes refinement of the transmissibility of Covid-19 among children, including in school settings. Morrison on Thursday rejected arguments that the widespread transmission of Delta among children necessitated a revision of the national targets.
The main scenarios modelled in the initial Doherty report estimated how rapidly and how far a single outbreak involving 30 individuals would spread through the Australian population at the time of transition to phase B of the national plan.
Quick GuideHow to get the latest news from Guardian Australia
Show
While pointing to an easing of harsh restrictions, like lockdowns, when vaccination rates hit 70% of adults, the Doherty work is significantly more nuanced than much of the headline political debate suggests.
Doherty has said if testing, tracing, isolating and quarantine (TTIQ) becomes only “partially effective” during a significant outbreak because of pressure on the public health system, then “light or moderate restrictions [would] probably be insufficient to regain control of epidemics, even at 70% coverage”.
The first run of work warned “prolonged lockdowns would probably be needed to limit infection numbers and caseloads” if contact tracing couldn’t keep pace.
The Doherty Institute director, Prof Sharon Lewin, said this week public health measures – such as masks, checking in, testing, tracing and isolating, and “limited” lockdowns – were “a key part of the model”. She said “there was no freedom day” – just a gradual transition as vaccination rates rose.
The states asked for a recut of the initial work because daily Delta cases currently were significantly higher than the hypothetical 30 cases Doherty used to run its scenarios.
Lewin has said a higher baseline of community transmission will not significantly alter its landing points. But other experts including the Grattan Institute’s Stephen Duckett have warned large outbreaks will harm the effectiveness of TTIQ. Separate analysis by Grattan suggests Australia can’t afford to abandon its zero Covid strategy until 80% of the population is vaccinated.
Morrison’s efforts to lay the ground for easing public health restrictions reflect the government’s belief that Australians are tired of lockdowns. Non-compliance with restrictions has been a significant feature of the current outbreak.
The federal education minister, Alan Tudge, told Radio National on Thursday the government wanted “to get kids back in the classroom as quickly as possible” because they had missed as much as six months of face-to-face schooling, particularly in Melbourne.
Although test scores suggested the lockdowns had not affected educational attainment, Tudge said the impact on children’s mental health had been “serious”.