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With the AFL finals less than 24 hours away, it's time to look at the reasons why each of the premiership contenders can and can't win the flag.
Of course, not all finals teams are created equal.
For some teams on this list, the chances of a flag are close to a miracle shot. For others, the evidence points to a much greater chance — and an accompanying greater weight of expectation.
Under the current finals format, only three sides have made the grand final from outside the top four, and only one — the Western Bulldogs in 2016 — have gone on to win the flag.
Obviously it is possible for all eight sides to win the flag in theory. So when we say why they "can't" win, it's more a case of "what could stop them winning".
Why each finals team can — and can't — win the AFL flag
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Collingwood
It's fair to say that for long periods of this season the Magpies have seemed almost inevitable premiers, as Craig McRae's men have run through sides, including in wins over a number of their eventual September rivals.
But there's no doubt that people's enthusiasm about Collingwood's chances has cooled somewhat after the end of the home and away season.
So, where do they sit?
Why they can win:
They've got the cattle, or at least they do if their best come back. A fit or at least finals-functional Nick Daicos and Darcy Moore will go a long way to getting the Pies to their best.
Intercepts are an increasingly key part of football, and the Pies are number one in that area.
They're also second best in the league in tackles inside 50 — and that ferocious forward pressure is what they need to reproduce in September.
They can score in bursts and they move the ball fast, making it difficult to stop. The likes of Jamie Elliott can be matchwinners — the Pies' number five also seems to save his best for the big occasion.
They also average the second-highest number of goals of any team in the league, behind only the Crows.
They have belief, in that they know that their best football is difficult to withstand by opposition teams. And they are a big chance of winning a flag without having to leave the MCG.
Why they can't:
In the last five weeks, the Magpies have conceded 100 points three times, and 93 points in another outing. That's not the form you need when trying to get set for a finals campaign.
The question that springs to mind is: Are Collingwood the 2023 version of last year's Demons? Melbourne won their first 10 games in 2022, lost their next three and then went 6-7 after the bye. They then went out in straight sets, and the Pies are giving off similar vibes.
Collingwood won 16 of their first 18 games, including five straight after the bye. But they have won four of their last seven, and one of those was a facile 70-point win over a slumping Bombers in round 24.
They are capable of turning it around, but it's a concern going into September.
Brisbane
Why they can win:
Chris Fagan has been up-front about it — he says 2023 is the Brisbane Lions' best opportunity to win a flag since he's been there. It's not hard to see why.
You can start with their prime position. Second place on the ladder means the Lions are set for two home finals and the chance to stay at the Gabba until the grand final if all goes well.
They're in form, winning four straight in August to lead into September, including victories over fellow finalists Collingwood and St Kilda. In total, they are 8-2 against the other sides in the finals this season.
In particular, the Lions seem to be hitting the finals with key players coming into their own, such as Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Harris Andrews at the back.
They are second in the final eight at centre clearances, and lead their flag rivals for marks inside 50, through players like Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron.
Brisbane also has a difference-maker in the ruck in "Big O" Oscar McInerney. He is perhaps the only ruckman who can potentially neutralise Melbourne's Max Gawn, including his marking threat.
Why they can't:
There are not a lot of items in the Lions' negatives column. One concern is their performance against Port Adelaide early in the season, where they failed to fire up forward, and could not seem to stop the Power's ability to score.
A repeat of that result would see them give up their home advantage and face an intimidating MCG prelim against Collingwood or Melbourne.
The other element of concern relates to their defence and the Demons. Being able to hold onto a lead is vital in finals. The game at the MCG in round 18, where the Lions led by 26 points early in the final quarter before Melbourne scored four unanswered goals from the 16-minute mark was a devastating loss.
More importantly, it raises the team's record at the MCG. The Lions scored a vital win over Collingwood in round 23, but that was at Docklands. At the MCG, Brisbane has won only one game in their last 15 outings dating back to 2015… and guess where the grand final will be held?
Port Adelaide
Why they can win:
Putting a run together in September is clearly crucial if you want to hold up the premiership cup, and Port Adelaide know a thing or two about winning streaks this season.
After a tough start, they put together 13 wins on the bounce to be in contention for a top-two spot.
They didn't quite make it, largely because of a disappointing run of four losses late on, which is why their road to a flag goes through Brisbane at the Gabba this weekend. But they will have no fears against the Lions, having crushed them the last time they met.
The Power have a number of X-factors, which means they can never be counted out in games.
Key Brownlow Medallist contender Zak Butters leads the way, with his amazing play and ability to make something out of nothing capable of lifting his side at key moments.
His partner in crime, Connor Rozee, is also well able to break things open, while Jason Horne-Francis has shown he can surge the ball out of the middle and put the Power into attack, or run his way around a defence to snap crucial majors.
Port Adelaide sit fourth in the league in marks inside 50, which gives the likes of Jeremy Finlayson and Todd Marshall the chance to convert.
At the back, the combination of Aliir Aliir's intercepts and Dan Houston's long-kicking ability make a huge difference.
Why they can't:
The ruck area is a real concern, with worries about Scott Lycett and his body's ability to make it through September. They don't have many options. If they have to go with Jeremy Finlayson that takes a vital target away from the forward line.
The Power commit too many turnovers, and if they can't remedy that, someone is likely to make them pay in the finals.
While they have definite ability in defence, the numbers don't lie. Port Adelaide have the 12th-best defence in terms of points conceded, averaging nearly 83 points a game.
Melbourne
Why they can win:
The old mantra of "defence wins premierships" may not always be true, but with the Demons it certainly suggests they are a better chance for the flag than fourth place.
The last three weeks leading into finals, Melbourne have conceded 60, 60 and 56 points. That includes matches against two of their finals rivals in Carlton and Sydney.
The bottom line is that they don't have to have a great attack (see later) if rivals can't score.
One of the core reasons for this defence is, of course, their intercept abilities, and the star duo of Steven May and Jake Lever.
There are some top forwards the Demons will come up against in this finals series, but those forwards will have to take on perhaps the best combination in the league.
The other big key is the midfield, where you have the drive of Clayton Oliver, the brilliance of Christian Petracca and the grunt and power of Jack Viney off the back of Max Gawn's ruckwork. You can also add in the skipper's ability to drift wide and provide a vital marking outlet out of defence. It's a hard combination to beat.
Stats-wise, they lead the league in contested marks, their defensive forward pressure is excellent (they are second in tackles inside 50) and they are third for inside 50s.
Why they can't:
Melbourne's forward set-up has been the biggest risk in recent years, even when they were at their peak in 2021. Bayley Fritsch is their best option, but he is not 100 per cent fit, and if he gets injured there will be big problems. They have an X-factor in Kysaiah Pickett, but the season-ending injury to Jake Melksham is a big blow.
If opposition teams can turn things into a shootout, then the Dees are at a definite disadvantage.
It's also uncertain whether they can reproduce the best of their burst footy that killed off the Bulldogs in 2021.
Overall, though, there aren't that many reasons to say no, to be honest.
Carlton
Why they can win:
The Blues are the form team in the AFL right now, with nine wins in their last 10 games. And you could argue that the loss, in round 24 against GWS, came in a "meaningless" game with fifth spot secured.
The Michael Voss mantra of team defence, all-in at the contest and pressure has stood them in pretty good stead over the back half of the year. From round 18 onwards, Carlton have beaten four finals rivals in Port Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda and Melbourne, including three of the top four
If a two-week break allows skipper Patrick Cripps to run freely and play to his potential, then watch out because the Blues skipper already has a point to prove after a decade without playing in September.
Then there is the small matter of having the AFL's hottest forward in Charlie Curnow, who can kick a bag on teams, and go back to the defensive hotspot and take matchwinning intercept marks if needed.
The Blues lead the league clearly in contested marks, and they have the best record for contested possessions in midfield.
Why they can't:
If they beat Sydney, they will play the loser of Collingwood-Melbourne at the MCG, and then the winner of Brisbane-Port Adelaide.
The last time they beat the Lions at the Gabba was 10 years ago. They've lost seven games since. It's been just as long since they beat the Power in SA. The last time they did it in 2013, it was at the now-demolished Football Park.
The Blues' scoring is very one-sided, based off stoppages and clearances. Punishing teams from turnovers is not their forte, and that means if rivals can come close to breaking even at scoring from clearances, they are likely to have too much for Carlton.
This is their first finals in 10 years. It is a driving force behind the team, but how likely is it that they go all the way when most of them don't even have finals experience. They could go deep, but as for winning it all? That's a tough ask.
St Kilda
Why they can win:
It's an obvious one, but the man in charge of St Kilda has experience at getting to the big game.
Only three coaches out of the final eight have led a team to the grand final. Ross Lyon is one of them. He also happens to be the only man to have taken the Saints to the decider since the 1990s.
His defensive outlook has again inspired the Saints this season, as at their best they are able to control matches with a high-possession, mark-heavy game plan.
If they can keep that plan going through finals, it will help them take the heat out of games and avoid being overwhelmed by some of the more attacking outfits.
The keys to the Saints' success start with Jack Sinclair's top ball use out of the back line, and his ability to gain territory, pressure opponents and find targets to set up scores. Alongside him is fellow All-Australian Callum Wilkie, whose intercepts have been crucial.
Then there is ruckman Rowan Marshall, spearhead Max King (if fit and firing) and Sam Hayes as a wildcard target who can dominate sides when he gets going.
Why they can't:
The key problem for St Kilda is the scoring side of the equation. They have the 15th-best attack in the AFL this season, ahead of only Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast.
That is not going to get things done in September.
They are also the worst side in the AFL for total clearances — 18th for centre clearances and 16th for stoppage clearances — and 15th at inside 50s.
If they get past GWS, the likes of Collingwood, Brisbane and Port Adelaide are likely to have way too much firepower for them.
GWS
Why they can win:
The Giants are up there with Carlton as the form team going into finals, with nine wins from their last 11 games.
They have the potential to produce a surging September to match the Bulldogs of 2016 and win it all from seventh.
It starts with Toby Greene, whose brilliant 60-goal season has led the Giants' resurgence and led to his acknowledgement as the All-Australian skipper for 2023.
His one-percenters, his individual brilliance and ability to produce in big moments make him the dangerman for GWS opponents. New coach Adam Kingsley also takes the plaudits for moulding the Giants into a high-pressure team that punishes opponents for turnovers and can do damage on the scoreboard.
Their midfield options are strong, with Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio in rare form, while up forward Jesse Hogan could make an impact in finals, although they will miss Toby Bedford against the Saints.
The ability to use Finn Callaghan as a tagger is a definite plus for GWS, while their ball movement (second in the league for handballs) gives them the possibility of bringing back the Orange Tsunami.
One thing is certain: No-one will want to face the Giants in September.
Why they can't:
They are not particularly strong in attack or defence, points-wise, which means that a lot of things have to go right for them to win.
In particular, the Giants fare badly with intercepts. They desperately need Sam Taylor to be fit in finals or their campaign will be a short one.
They also have the fourth-highest average for turnovers committed in the league. If they can't improve on that, someone will take advantage and end their season.
Sydney
Why they can win:
This is a team that made it to the grand final last year — however the Swans were thrashed by Geelong at the MCG.
This isn't that different a team 12 months later. They have talent and some of the traditional Sydney attributes, and a coach in John Longmire who excels at getting the best from his side.
The Swans are number one in the league for tackles inside 50, so forward defensive pressure is a given. They also don't commit many turnovers, so that is a big plus.
In the first finals of the post-Buddy era, Sydney have several big forward options, with Hayden McLean, Joel Amartey and Logan McDonald leading the way. They then have Tom Papley and Isaac Heeney who are capable of hitting the scoreboard at key times.
With Nick Blakey, Errol Gulden, Brayden Campbell and Ollie Florent, they also have a quartet of players who can run and distribute the ball.
Why they can't:
The Swans are defensively vulnerable, conceding an average of 83 points in the six rounds before the finals.
Another knock on Sydney is that the team's final quarters have been bad, with the Swans running out of energy or scoring in several recent games.
This means that opposition teams will feel they are always in the game, with a shot at running over the top of their opposition. Going head-to-head with their finals rivals this season, the Swans have only managed to beat Carlton and GWS.
They also obviously have the toughest path to a flag, with four road wins needed.
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