A woman will be preferred as Trump has a significant female-voter problem. Elise Stefanik, No. 4 in the House Republican leadership, has shown exceptional fealty to Trump, as have Arizona’s Kari Lake (now running for the Senate) and South Dakota’s Governor Kristi Noem. None of them appear capable of doing what vice president Mike Pence did on January 6, 2021: refuse a demand by president Trump to overturn the election. Trump knows it, and they know it.

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Other possibles include Tim Scott, the black senator from South Carolina. A Tim Scott-Kamala Harris televised VP debate would set a ratings record. Senator JD Vance of Ohio, who Trump backed enthusiastically, has been a stalwart for Trump on Capitol Hill.

But even as Trump has been King Kong in this campaign, a significant vulnerability has been exposed. Yes, Trump crushed the field. But in the first two competitive primaries, while Trump got over 50 per cent of the vote, there were still 40 per cent-plus who did not vote for him. Many DeSantis and Haley voters will fall into line. But expert analysts of the party show that 10 per cent of Republicans are never-Trumpers. Another 30 per cent have voted twice for Trump, in 2016 and 2020, but are open this year, principally on the issue of Trump’s fitness for office.

If Biden can attract a measurable margin of disaffected Republican voters in key swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia – this could offset the fall-off in support he is experiencing from key Democratic groups, especially younger voters. Abortion rights will also be a powerful driver of Republican votes to Biden and the Democrats.

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Trump never broke 50 per cent approval during his presidency or in the years since. He was a minority president. He is the Divider-in-Chief. This year, in courtrooms across the country, he is the Defendant-in-Chief. As the reality of Trump’s being the nominee and poised to return to the White House finally sinks in big time – as it is doing at this very moment – Biden needs every edge within his grasp.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.