Netanyahu says he has directed the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) to plan for the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people from Rafah, where over a million Palestinians are believed to be sheltering, ahead of a ground invasion.

Explaining the significance of taking control of Rafah, Israeli government spokesman Eylon Levy said the IDF had destroyed 18 of 24 Hamas’s battalions since the war began.

Claiming that Hamas’s final two battalions in Khan Younis were “on their last legs”, Levy said that defeating the four battalions that remain in Rafah was essential to Israel’s goal of defeating the terrorist group and removing it from power in Gaza. Rafah sits on the border of Gaza and Egypt, and Israel believes seizing control of the city is crucial to stopping weapons and supplies flowing to Hamas.

“This war cannot end after the October 7 massacre with Hamas claiming victory or even claiming a draw,” Levy said.

The divergent pathways reflect the two, at times conflicting aims, that Israel has pursued in the war: the defeat of Hamas and the return of hostages. A ceasefire would likely lead to the return of most surviving hostages but could allow Hamas to regroup; seizing Rafah would advance Israel’s military goals but at the likely expense of the return of the hostages.

Israel rescued two hostages from Rafah on Monday in a successful mission, but Hamas said another three died during Israeli air strikes. Israel says about 100 remain in Hamas captivity.

Biden has demanded Israel not invade Rafah without a clear plan to protect civilian lives, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has joined other world leaders in condemning the prospect of a ground incursion.

The United Nations has warned of “carnage” and a “terrifying” number of civilian casualties.

“This is a place where people have been displaced from their homes, often because their homes don’t exist any more or have been told to go, to be safe,” Albanese said in his most forceful criticism of Israel since the beginning of the war.

Loading

Egypt has warned that continued Israeli strikes on Rafah will create an “unlivable reality”, with the scenario of mass displacement a possibility.

“The Egyptian position on this has been very clear and straightforward: We are against this policy, and we will not allow it,” a spokesperson for Egypt’s Foreign Ministry.

The prospect of a Rafah ground invasion could ultimately be a tactic by Netanyahu to squeeze as much as possible from Hamas before striking a ceasefire deal. Or he could be serious about forging ahead to try to deliver a decisive blow against Hamas.