US President Joe Biden appears to have caught combatants in the war in Gaza by surprise with his declaration that a temporary ceasefire could be implemented five days before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins on the evening of March 9.

The president told reporters in New York that he was hopeful that a ceasefire was possible by next Monday. “My national security adviser tells me that we’re close. We’re close. We’re not done yet,” he said. “Ramadan’s coming up and there has been an agreement by the Israelis that they would not engage in activities during Ramadan as well, in order to give us time to get all the hostages out.”

Israeli and Hamas officials have poured water on a ceasefire. While we can only speculate on the reason’s behind Biden’s hopeful ebullience, it is clear he has insider information on behind-the-scenes negotiations and is obviously running harder on the possibility of a ceasefire than either of the warring sides.

A senior official from Egypt has been reported claiming a six-week ceasefire would go into effect, and Hamas would agree to free up to 40 hostages – mostly civilian women, at least two children, and older and sick captives. A proposal was crafted after mediated negotiations in Paris several days ago. The framework has been presented by Israel, the US, Qatar, and Egypt in the French capital. Israeli and Hamas delegations are reported to be in the Qatari capital, Doha, for further negotiations.

Since Hamas’ October 7 attack, halting the bloodshed in Gaza has been diplomatically difficult. According to Israeli figures, about 1200 people were killed and another 250 abducted in the attack. So far, Israel’s retaliation and invasion has killed almost 30,000 people by some estimations, displaced more than 85 per cent of the 2.3 million population, and left Palestinian infrastructure in ruins. About 100 hostages were freed in exchange for 240 Palestinians in Israeli jails last November, but the truce collapsed after a week. Progress on a second deal has proved elusive.

Just as it is in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interest to prolong the war and postpone the day of reckoning for his failure to prevent the October attack, Biden has a pressing personal political need to help resolve the conflict.

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The president must lessen anger within his Democratic Party over his stand on Gaza to ensure maximum support against Donald Trump in the November presidential election. The Herald’s North America correspondent Farrah Tomazin reports that although Biden won, he faced a grassroots campaign in the Michigan presidential primaries, a state with an estimated 300,000 Arab-American and Muslim voters. Early results showed about 16 per cent voted “uncommitted” as a protest against his support for Israel, one of his key liabilities with more liberal Democrats. The high number of uncommitted votes is a warning sign in a blue-collar state that Trump won against Hillary Clinton by just 0.2 per cent in 2016.

Less parochially, Biden is offering Israel the chance to normalise diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. Biden made it clear in New York he was no longer insisting on “a two-state solution immediately but a process to get to a two-state solution”. Ceasefire is the first step to that process. For Netanyahu, making the neighbourhood less hostile would be not only a historic achievement but a far preferable legacy than the bloodshed of Gaza.

When Ramadan starts, the war in Gaza would have been going on for more than five months. Gaza used to be described as the world’s biggest open-air prison camp. Now it is our biggest killing field. Further futile bloodshed is the only surety the longer it continues. The time is now for all parties to get together and ensure that a ceasefire happens.

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