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It’s likely that Essendon’s self-evaluation is closer to the media’s and the competition’s assessment. Hardly any pundits are tipping the Bombers to make the final eight, in part because, like the red-and -black hordes, we have been let down so often.

As one influential footy media commentator put it, when pondering Essendon’s prospects last week, “Work out where you think they should finish and put them three spots lower.” The Bombers, clearly, aren’t a trusted brand.

Still, there is also a large element of mystery about Essendon in 2024.

The Bombers were fifth after round 17 of last year, having upended Melbourne, pushed Collingwood to the brink on Anzac Day, and trounced Carlton and Adelaide. They were on the march.

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Their season concluded, though, with utter evisceration by the Giants and Collingwood, their percentage reduced to rubble (89.66) and a customary placing of 11th.

It’s hard to know which Essendon – the blockbuster openers, the late-season flops or a muddling mixture – will be visiting our screens this year. The aspiration for the coaches must be that they are difficult to play, every single week, and that they improve, individually and as a team.

Why are Essendon harder to read than James Joyce?

I would venture that this uncertainty about Essendon’s capabilities is a product of uncertainty about the capability of their younger players, and especially the two-to-five-year players who were picked relatively early in the draft.

Jeff Thomson, cricket’s most terrifying fast bowler in his 1970s pomp, once quipped that if he didn’t know where the ball would land, what hope did the batsman have?

This Thommo-ism can be applied to Essendon ’24: if the Dons don’t know what these players can and can’t do, what hope for the rest of us?

In 2020, the Bombers lost Joe Daniher, Adam Saad and Conor McKenna and gained two top 10 picks, as John Worsfold bequeathed the iron throne to Ben Rutten.

More than three years later, we have little idea of what Nik Cox (pick eight), Zach Reid (10) and, to a lesser degree, Archie Perkins (nine) can achieve in the AFL. Cox and Reid have been injured for long stretches, while Perkins has shown flashes of real talent without graduating to consistency.

In the case of Cox – a supple tall who plays small – there is no clarity, either, on his optimal position.

That trio remains works-in-progress without timelines on their arrivals. Rangy tall forward Harrison Jones, too, has been injured, his 2023 ended by an ankle reconstruction. Is Jones a genuine key forward or Eric Hipwood-esque floating flanker? Another known unknown.

Elijah Tsatas, pick five in the 2022 national draft, didn’t play much in Scott’s first season due to a knee injury. He was recruited to become a gun midfielder and will need time.

Ben Hobbs (pick 13, 2021 national draft) was not picked for Saturday’s opener against Hawthorn, having had an interrupted lead-in to the season. An inside midfielder deemed a certain 200-gamer at the starting gate, Hobbs has played 35 games and would want to elevate his performance and cement a spot alongside Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish.

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Jye Caldwell is yet another Bomber picked in the first round (by GWS) and midfielder, whose progress has been steady or incremental, without a great leap forward.

To an extent, the Dons have suffered for their muddling mediocrity – as opposed to being 16th-18th and snaring picks 1-4 like North, and for having strong hands in weak drafts. Andy McGrath was top pick in a draft with hardly any A-plus players (Hugh McCluggage close to the best), while the 2020 draft was COVID-interrupted and hasn’t yielded best and fairests or All-Australians as yet.

That said, Essendon’s list-management blunders and propensity for making excuses shouldn’t be overlooked. They traded out of the first rounds of the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts for Devon Smith (gone), Jake Stringer (stubbornly enigmatic), Saad (now at Carlton) and Dylan Shiel. The Bombers, judged by those transactions, thought they were close. They weren’t.

And this year, they’ve brought in four more needs-based recruits who are good enough to improve the 23, but who, as Scott acknowledged, do not represent their salvation. All four – including Todd Goldstein, 35 years, will play against the Hawks this weekend.

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The Dons have noted that Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Todd Goldstein and Xavier Duursma did not cost any draft picks.

Essendon’s core of senior players, headed by Merrett, Parish, Mason Redman, and McGrath, is decent and honest but bereft of game-changing A-plus superstars.

And whereas Damien Hardwick believes he has 90 per cent of a future grand final team already at Gold Coast, Scott and Essendon don’t know exactly what they have to work with.

They know what they don’t know, though. “Wisdom,” said fast-bowler-turned philosopher Jeff Thomson, “is knowing that you don’t know shit.”