Sign Up
..... Connect Australia with the world.
Categories

Posted: 2017-03-09 05:25:27

Corporate Australia has enjoyed one of the best earnings seasons in years, but investors don't appear to be buying in. The ASX200's growth so far this year has been modest, and has vastly lagged that of other major indices.

While many equity strategists remain upbeat – expecting the ASX to hit 6000 this year – the index has struggled to hold any gains above the 5800 mark, closing at 5741.2 on Thursday.

The index has grown only 1.5 per cent since January 1. That's compared to the S&P500, up 5.5 per cent, or the DAX, which has added 4.2 per cent, the FTSE100, up 2.7 per cent, or the Hang Seng, which has grown 8.1 per cent. 

A reliance on materials, energy and financials has hamstrung the ASX, equity strategists said. 

"Some of the major sectors for the ASX are financials, materials and energy," said Patersons Securities economist Tony Farnham. "So that's going to be a drag – materials and energy shares have pulled back of late."

The financial, materials and energy sectors comprise 58 per cent of the ASX200, which is weighted by market capitalisation. On a year-to-date basis, the energy sector is down 4.2 per cent, the materials sector has shed 0.7 per cent, while financials have added 3.6 per cent.

Even so, Australian banks haven't enjoyed the same level of lift as overseas, said JP Morgan global market strategist Kerry Craig.

Local banks have been weakened by concerns over the housing market, trepidation over the strength of the consumer economy, and the possibility of global interest rates rising – a negative for local banks, which are reliant on global financing.

"All of that has weighed on the banking sector," Mr Craig said. "More broadly, the local economy hasn't seen the huge strength reflected elsewhere.

"The US economy is doing very well this year. And Europe keeps surprising on the upside. Compare that to Australia, where the economy has been pretty mediocre," he said. 

Markets in the US, Europe and Asia are broader in their capitalisation. The S&P500 is being directly boosted by expectations of accommodating policies from the Trump administration.

In Europe and Asia, weak currencies have helped – many of the key components of those markets are multinational companies that earn their money around the world, and so benefit when the currency they report in is depreciating. 

BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese said the market could hit 6000 this year. But, he added, it would have to see broader revenue growth outside of resources to push higher. 

"A lack of top-line revenue growth from non-resource companies – reflecting soft domestic demand and competitive pressures – appears to have limited investor exuberance," he said. "Even in the resources sector, there's nervousness over the sustainability of current sky-high iron prices.

"With outright price-to-earnings valuations high and bond yields also under upward pressure, the market really needs further growth in earnings to push prices higher. Provided the likely correction in iron ore prices is not too bad, there appears scope for further earnings upgrades in the resources sector – but elsewhere the outlook remains quite patchy."

Mr Craig said until a further rebalancing of the index occurred, the ASX would continue to struggle. The index was still too reliant on the big miners, he said, and an expected rebalancing towards things like education and tourism has yet to materialise. 

For this reason, JP Morgan's clients have been increasingly diversifying investments off-shore. "Australian shareholders shouldn't expect negative returns, but should temper their expectations on what will be delivered.

"The global economy is doing much better, and that's quite a positive story. People are looking offshore for better returns."

View More
  • 0 Comment(s)
Captcha Challenge
Reload Image
Type in the verification code above