"If I want to think that northern hemisphere-bred three-year-olds are good bets in the race, I'd be backing Russian Camelot who doesn't have to prove he's acclimatised or used to the Australian way of racing, it's a rather unique experiment that I think is going to pay off," he said.

"I'm not sure why he's $13.

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"Northern hemisphere-bred three-year-olds that are at the elite level that are coming for our big group 1 race, they don't need an allowance. It's the same time as the Arc and three-year-olds over time have won something like two thirds of the Arc for a century.

"Another way to look at his form is, how would he have gone in the race that Tiger Moth was dominant in last start? Russian Camelot has only run in our weight-for-age group 1 races this prep and hasn't run a bad race yet, and judgment made of him has in some part has been made because of what the price of the horse has been and more has been expected of him.

"The horse has been running really, really well, it's just that so much has been expected of him he's worn out his popularity to some extent."

Beirne believes the Cox Plate form will prove a better guide than the Caulfield Cup for Tuesday's race, giving Sir Dragonet a hope of completing the double last achieved by Makybe Diva.

"The market has him at $10 and the computer has him at $8, so he's over the odds," Beirne said.

"I'm focused more on the Cox Plate form. I don't like making generalisations but of the two races I think the Cox Plate form … there were so many good runs in the Caulfield Cup that made the computer suspicious."

However, Beirne is forecasting a $17 chance to run better than his price.

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"The one horse that is attractive at a reasonable price is Finche," he said.

"[Having twice lost in a Cup] is not a factor I've ever bothered with to be honest, but Finche didn't even race in the autumn and I think that's to his benefit and I feel he's the horse at a reasonable price.

"Russian Camelot, Sir Dragonet and I would have Finche for third because I'd be looking there at the difference of my price to the public price, they're the three horses I'd be focused on."

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But Beirne said he would not be putting a line through the favourite Tiger Moth.

"I'm not too worried about that [he hasn't had an Australian start]," he said.

"It's been well proven the older horses struggle with it. But to take a position against him, the thing that worries about me is his true ability has been disguised by the lack of times we've been able to see him on a race course. You'd be pretty brave to say Tiger Moth couldn't win."