The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has pushed back its forecast of winter gas shortfalls in south-eastern Australia from 2023 to 2026 on the basis that it expects Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest’s proposed LNG terminal at Port Kembla in NSW to proceed on schedule.

But shortages could still emerge from 2023 if the project is delayed, AEMO said, or if a demand spike due to a one-in-20-year cold snap led to greater strain on supply.

UBS energy and utilities analyst Tom Allen, who had anticipated Victoria’s rejection of AGL’s Crib Point proposal, said he expected AGL would seek to contract gas from Port Kembla.

“We expect AGL to procure 15-25 petajoules of gas supply via imported LNG from the Port Kembla LNG import terminal in NSW plus procure additional gas from Queensland, transported via pipeline into NSW and Victoria,” he said.

AGL chief executive Brett Redman said he was “reviewing and considering its position” on the government’s Crib Point verdict, but was open to striking a deal with one of the other companies vying to build LNG import terminals in south-eastern Australia.

Conservation groups said AEMO’s determination that Victoria had sufficient gas supply to last until 2026 gave the Andrews government more time to develop a strategy focused on reducing gas demand, such as switching appliances from gas to electric and prohibiting new residential gas connections.

“We can avoid damaging new gas supply projects like Crib Point and onshore drilling,” Environment Victoria campaigns manager Nick Aberle said.