However, the police never received any request to investigate, neither from Bolsonaro nor the ministry, according to a Federal Police source with knowledge of investigations who wasn’t authorised to speak publicly and declined to be named.

The secretary-general of the presidency, Onyx Lorenzoni, told reporters last week that Bolsonaro did meet with the Mirandas but claimed they presented fraudulent documents and ordered the brothers investigated.

Bharat Biotech has denied any allegation of wrongdoing, saying in an emailed statement that it adhered to the highest standards of compliance. The company’s press representative didn’t respond when asked why a payment would be routed through a Singapore-based company.

The case has galvanised Bolsonaro’s opponents and prompted protest organisers to move up their next nationwide demonstration to Saturday. Bolsonaro’s approval rating has reached an all-time low, according to pollster Datafolha.

On Wednesday AEST, the health minister said the contract would be suspended, following the guidance of the federal comptroller, the CGU.

Marcelo Queiroga said his team would probe the allegations. A statement from his office said there were “no irregularities in the contract but, for compliance, the Health Ministry chose to suspend” it.

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Seven of the 11 members of the Senate committee investigating Bolsonaro’s COVID-19 response said that, once their inquest concludes, in August at earliest, they will vote to approve recommending Bolsonaro be indicted on the charge of prevarication. The crime entails delaying or refraining from action required as part of a public official’s duty for reasons of personal interest.

Senators Randolfe Rodrigues and Humberto Costa spoke on record with the AP. Five senators spoke on condition of anonymity due to concerns that detailing plans would expose the committee to attacks from the government and its allies.

Bolsonaro on Saturday said the committee had “seven scoundrels” among its members. He has denied all wrongdoing and knowledge of possible corruption.

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Any committee recommendation for indictment would need to be accepted by the prosecutor-general, a Bolsonaro appointee, then approved by Congress before an investigation could begin.

The committee is “a big threat to Bolsonaro, but one step at a time,” said Thiago de Aragão, director of strategy at political risk consultancy Arko Advice, who added the accusations have increased the pressure.

“But it’s only a gamechanger if you have an important portion of congressmen [...] shifting sides and endorsing this kind of action against him.”

Last year, Bolsonaro began drawing close to the large “Centrao” bloc in Congress - a group of disparate parties’ MPs - to shore up his legislative agenda and stave off risks of impeachment. In the wake of the allegations against Bolsonaro, the MPs have begun reevaluating the risks of backing him, according to Claudio Couto, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university.

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“It’s still in their interest to follow the government at this moment,” Couto said. But, he added, “Defending a president who is very compromised is difficult for anyone. Politicians and parties won’t want to associate their image with a president like that. There’s a limit to everything.”

The opposition has filed more than 100 impeachment requests, but House Speaker Arthur Lira, a Centrao member, reiterated in an interview on Friday with local media Jota that there weren’t sufficient reasons for him to greenlight proceedings.

The Miranda brothers’ Senate committee testimony “fundamentally changes the debate, because at that moment the President had the duty to take some sort of measure” or explain why their claims were baseless, said Davi Tangerino, a professor of criminal law at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

The government hasn’t yet made any payments relevant to the contract nor have any vaccines been provided due to obstacles in the health regulator’s approval process.

Even before the Miranda brothers’ testimony last week, federal prosecutors were already investigating possible irregularities in the contract, which committed the ministry to pay $430 million — at a cost of $20 per vaccine dose, the most expensive of all vaccines purchased by Brazil — to Bharat Biotech’s representative in Brazil, according to a document sent to the AP by the Prosecutor-General’s press office.

The political dust has yet to settle, but the case is a sign that Bolsonaro will face additional headwinds with his reelection bid next year.

“The extent of the political damage remains uncertain,” newspaper O Globo wrote in an editorial published on Tuesday. “Concretely, the only thing one can say is the government is cornered and ever more hostage to allies.”

AP