The Climate Council’s modelling evaluates the impact of border tariffs in different regions covering iron, steel, cement, fertiliser, aluminium, electricity, coal and gas. If South Korea, China and the G7 follow the EU, and apply tariffs to the above products, NSW and Queensland will bear the brunt. NSW would lose around 20,000 jobs and $5 billion in Gross State Product, and Queensland more than 50,000 jobs and $10 billion over a period of several years. This is an entirely avoidable catastrophe.

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The modelling is unequivocal: the Australian government thinking we can keep exporting fossil fuels and other emissions-intensive products to the rest of the world without penalty is a negligent fantasy. It will harm the very NSW regional communities whom those who stand in the way of climate action claim they wish to protect.

The federal government must face the inevitable transition to a low carbon world with a clear plan to support those in affected industries, back green private sector investment, recognise the first mover advantages all around, and embrace the jobs and economic opportunity of the new clean economy.

Modelling by Beyond Zero Emissions now estimates Australia could grow a new green export mix worth $333 billion a year, almost triple the value of existing fossil fuel exports. Deloitte Access Economics says support for a low-carbon economy would add $680 billion in economic growth and 250,000 new jobs by 2070.

As a foundation for our economic future, the federal government needs to get the policy settings right. The first step – a commitment to at the very least match our trade allies in halving emissions this decade – is long overdue. We should take our place on the world stage at next month’s UN climate summit with nothing less.

Nicki Hutley is a senior economist and Climate Councillor. She was formerly a partner at Deloitte Access Economics. She is the author of the Climate Council’s new report on carbon border tariffs, Markets are moving: the economic costs of Australia’s climate inaction.