Glasgow: Global warming could peak at 1.9 degrees this century if pledges made at the COP26 climate talks and the days beforehand are honoured, according to a new analysis.

It is the first credible projection that suggests warming could be held at less than 2 degrees.

Similar analysis of pledges and reductions goals made just weeks before the Glasgow talks placed the world on a trajectory for a catastrophic 2.7-degree temperature rise.

The analysis, which was prepared by an expert team including Professor Malte Meinshausen, an Associate Professor at the University of Melbourne, assumes that all the commitments and pledges made are kept, and that funding is found to help developing nations reach their targets.

“It is a very credible analysis,” said Dr Simon Bradshaw, chief researcher with the Australia’s Climate Council, who is attending the talks in Scotland. “But a lot of things would have to go right, and it is still a long way from the goal of keeping [the Paris target of ] ‘1.5 alive’.”

The analysis takes into account the announcement that India had set its first net zero target, as well as a pledge by about 80 nations to reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030, and a second pledge by almost 100 nations, including Australia, to end deforestation by the same date, as well as newly announced national 2030 reduction goals.

Organisers hope that side deals and pledges, when combined with the official United Nations negotiations, will see the Glasgow talks succeed. Showing momentum at the start of the talks is seen as vital for a positive outcome.

During the climate talks’ third day, which had a focus on finance, it was announced that any company listed on the United Kingdom stock exchange would soon need to have a plan in place to get to net zero.