COP26 in Glasgow has been spun into something it could never be. Prince Charles called it “the last chance saloon” for climate action, while Boris Johnson declared: “If Glasgow fails, the Paris Agreement fails.“

The UN Secretary-General, US President Joe Biden and a host of other world leaders sang from a similar hymn sheet.

Part of this hype is the UK, as host, pressing for success. But COP26 has undeniably added import as it marks the effective beginning of the Paris Agreement as the new framework for global climate action. It also occurs in the context of mounting evidence for urgent climate action this decade, and growing expectations worldwide for serious climate ambition.

As hard as Britain and others have tried to confect a new “deal” in the offing at COP26 that secures commitments from countries to steer the world on a path to reach the 1.5 degree temperature goal that will ensure we avoid the worst impacts of climate change, such an outcome was never really in prospect. Blind Freddy could see that wishing and willing an end to coal use by 2030 was not achievable, certainly not without heroic diplomatic and financial efforts.

The problem with over-hyping is you set yourself up to fail. As leaders and ministers have departed, there is a narrative of disappointment emerging from Glasgow. Unfortunately, this undercuts what has been achieved and undermines the historic Paris Agreement, just as it begins in earnest.

The 2015 Paris deal compelled countries to progressively ratchet up their climate action and ambition, with reviews every five years. To kick-start the agreement, in 2020 (pushed back to this year because of COVID-19) parties agreed to see whether they could put more ambition on the table than what they committed to in 2015. They did not agree to come back five years later with commitments at a scale that would have everything done and dusted in year one of the agreement. The significance of Paris is that action will beget further ambition over time as learning, co-operation and confidence grows.

In this context, the results leading up to and at COP26 are remarkable and were, frankly, unimaginable even three years ago as I was leading Paris Agreement negotiations for Australia. More than 120 countries have now committed to net zero emissions by 2050 with many setting ambitious targets for 2030. The International Energy Agency has just estimated the additional commitments for COP26 – including the agreement on methane reductions by 2030 – put the world on track for a 1.8 degree temperature rise. While not 1.5 degrees, the achievement needs to be celebrated.

Without COP26, it is doubtful our Prime Minister would have committed to net zero by 2050. Notwithstanding the avalanche of, much reasonable, criticism about not being ambitious enough for 2030 or having policies to back the commitment, this is a pivotal decision for Australia.