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Posted: 2022-02-14 04:53:45

Nine months ago shareholders watched their stock trade at $8.60, they have experienced the white-knuckle moments of waiting for two inquiries to decide whether to recommend Crown should lose a casino license, and they have witnessed months of COVID-induced casino closures.

The $13.10 per share offer put on the table by Blackstone is well above what most would have expected even six months ago. It is difficult to imagine that another Crown suitor would top this generous offer.

So, Crown investors waiting to see if Star Entertainment will now enter the race will be sorely disappointed. The stakes are too rich for the Sydney-based casino operator, which withdrew its $12.50 merger proposal last year, and is currently embroiled in a regulatory quagmire of its own.

The timing of Blackstone’s latest offer for Crown is cute and clever.

The timing of Blackstone’s latest offer for Crown is cute and clever. Credit:Jason South

Crown’s board has already recommended the Blackstone offer. If either walked away there would be a break fee of about $90 million.

Additionally, Crown directors have agreed not to solicit any other bids and have given Blackstone the opportunity to match any higher offer.

Blackstone has the inside running and has effectively handicapped any other players that could have been in the race for Crown.

All this goes to demonstrate how attractive this offer is for shareholders. But it is also testament to Blackstone’s desire to get its hands on Crown.

It is almost a year since Blackstone lobbed its first indicative offer of $11.85 per share. This and four subsequent offers from Blackstone had been rejected by the Crown board. For the most part, Blackstone has spent the past year bidding against itself for a prize whose size is difficult to know.

Crown’s enhanced regulation will be costly to its earnings, there is always the threat that new strains of COVID will emerge, and that offshore VIP players will be disinclined or discouraged by the Chinese government to play in Australia.

Meanwhile, playing hard (or expensive) to get has worked well for Crown’s board - in particular the relatively new chief executive Steve McCann who has been juggling a takeover and a major regulatory overhaul of the business.

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He certainly deserves a tick. That said, McCann will become eligible for more than $5 million in performance rights if ownership of Crown changes regardless of whether he remains chief executive under Blackstone. And this is in addition to a salary of $2.5 million and up to $2.5 million in short-term incentives.

(He would have received the hurdle free performance rights in two and a half years regardless of a change in ownership.)

Looks like Crown’s takeover by Blackstone could be one of those rare moments in the casino business where every player wins a prize.

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