Add Category
Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is weakening. Professor Mark Galeotti compares the Russian regime to “a circular firing squad”. High-profile figures are being quietly unseated, others will follow as the invasion stalls altogether.
Colonel-General Sergey Beseda, head of the foreign intelligence branch of the FSB, was arrested two weeks ago on suspicion of embezzling money. Roman Gavrilov, the deputy head of the National Guard, has been accused of leaking classified information and “squandering fuel”. His boss Viktor Zolotov hasn’t been seen for weeks, nor has defence minister Sergei Shoigu.
Elvira Nabiullina is said to be torn between her opposition for a war that has enacted huge damage on the Russian economy and a sense of duty to help ordinary Russians.Credit:Bloomberg
As the atmosphere of paranoia ratchets up, defections have begun, with Anatoly Chubais the first to flee in protest at the war. As climate envoy, Chubais is a mid-ranking official but as the man credited with launching the political career of Putin in the 1990s his departure is a big blow and a huge opportunity for the West.
With cracks emerging in the Russian president’s inner circle, the intelligence services must now target other top figures that they think can be persuaded to follow Chubais’s brave example, starting with central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina.
There is every reason to suspect the 58-year-old would secretly love to escape. She tried to resign after Putin ordered the invasion, but he refused to allow it and, instead, she was appointed to serve another five years.
Loading
Nabiullina has one of the most thankless jobs in finance right now, but unfortunately for her she has been very good at it, which is why she commands such respect both inside the Kremlin and on the international stage - a rare feat these days.
She was a key figure in Putin’s “Fortress Russia” plan to insulate the Russian economy from external shocks. Her decision to bolster foreign reserves with a $US650 billion ($866 billion) war chest enabled the country to weather Western sanctions and the tumbling rouble.
Even when Russia fell into recession earlier in her reign, Nabiullina stood by her ultra-conservative monetary policy. When inflation was eventually brought under control, she won the admiration of Putin and widespread plaudits abroad. Former IMF chief Christine Lagarde once compared Nabiullina to “a fantastic conductor”, a nod to their shared passion for opera, while several financial publications declared her the world’s number one central banker.