The peer-reviewed analysis was an international collaboration between researchers from the University of Melbourne, Climate Resources Melbourne, the International Energy Agency and the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat.

International Energy Agency spokesman Christophe McGlade described the research finding as “big news”, as it marked the first time governments had come forward with specific targets that could hold global warming below the 2-degree level.

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“But it can’t be taken for granted that governments will implement their pledges on time and in full, [and] it’s unfortunately the case that pledges have not been backed up by the strong and credible near-term policies needed to make them a reality,” McGlade said.

The University of Melbourne-led research team analysed the data and targets of 196 countries, plus international maritime and aviation transport emissions. Researchers used the data and climate pledges to calculate country-level whole economy emissions, and then used those figures with climate simulation to predict future warming on a global scale.

One of the most significant new pledges during COP26 was from India, which announced a goal of net-zero emissions by 2070. There are 75 countries that have submitted long-term targets as part of their nationally determined contributions.

At Glasgow, countries were asked to return to COP27 in Egypt this year with new emission-reduction targets for 2030. The Paris Agreement has a “ratcheting up” process that requires countries to update their climate pledges every five years.

Energy markets have shown signs of strain this year, sharply accentuated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. McGlade urged countries to respond to the energy crisis in ways that did not jeopardise long-term climate goals, and said policymakers were at the crossroads.

“We can choose to lock in emissions and deepen the energy crisis, or we can use this moment to take an earnest step towards a safer, cleaner future,” he said.

The present-day level of 1.2 degrees of global warming, attributable to human activity, has intensified heat waves, bleached coral reefs and increased the number and severity of bushfires and floods.

The Glasgow climate summit closed with members failing to agree on a call to “phase-out” coal use, after a last-minute intervention by India, which succeeded in diluting the language to “phase down”. The agreement, called the Glasgow Climate Pact, calls on nations to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” and recognises the need for “a just transition” from fossil fuels.

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