Lithium prices have hit historical highs with a run-on impact into batteries prices and supply chain bottlenecks. The geopolitical crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is adding to the uncertainty.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, at current rates by 2030 demand for lithium batteries will outstrip supply by more than five times the entire 2021 lithium market.

This has created an unsustainable raw material crunch horizon for lithium-ion batteries and their applications.

While most consumers will focus on what this means for EVs, mobile phones and laptops, perhaps a more serious impact of these surging prices will be in the stationary energy storage market.

Without sustainable, safe and affordable energy storage for wind and solar farms, the global transition from an economy based on fossil fuels to renewables will be impossible.

Right now, the market is prioritising the allocation of already expensive and increasingly difficult to obtain lithium into immediate consumables: your new EV and mobile electronics.

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What does this mean for the energy transition?

Analysts Wood Mackenzie estimate that by 2030 there will be 1 terrawatt-hour of battery energy storage deployed worldwide, a massive hike on today’s capacity. This will require billions of dollars in energy storage infrastructure investment. This is a huge market that lithium-ion batteries alone will simply not be able to supply.

All this energy from wind and solar will need to be stored somewhere. We will need batteries everywhere to support a renewable and decentralised energy grid.

If lithium is being squeezed, what else will we use to store this enormous amount of energy?

It is quite right that lithium is prioritised for EVs, electronic consumables and the emerging electronic aviation industry. Lithium is a super-light element and, despite lingering safety concerns, ideal for small transport and mobile electronics.

But lithium is no longer the only game in town when it comes to stationary energy storage. Other technologies are coming online, whether they use sodium, zinc or vanadium. Energy storage systems for wind and solar do not need to move, so systems based on heavier raw materials can be just as good as lithium, right?

In fact, they can be better.

Alternative energy storage systems can use safer, more abundant and cheaper materials to store renewable energy. And many are far more suited to long-duration energy storage needed for grid-scale solar and wind power.

For the energy transition to work it comes down to being able to successfully capture energy when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing and store it for long enough and safely enough to despatch when it is needed.

The market is forcing the pace of the energy transition and lithium on its own will not be able to fill this demand. This will need a diversification in the raw material base for renewable energy stationary storage systems.

The lithium battery until now has been good enough for our needs in stationary storage. But that time is over. Lithium has its place, but if we want to power the transition to renewables, industry needs to think beyond lithium if we are to have a serious shot at decarbonising the economy and reaching our net-zero targets.

Thomas Maschmeyer is a professor at University of Sydney and founder and principal technology advisor at Gelion.

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