AGL announced in February it would bring forward the planned closure of Loy Yang A from 2048 to sometime between 2040 and 2045.

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However, the AEMO’s draft 2022 Integrated Systems Plan, based on 18 months of consultation, forecasts that all brown coal generation could withdraw from Australia by as early as 2032 amid increasing competition with cheaper renewables.

Australian average renewable output levels increased from 31 per cent up to 34 per cent in the December quarter.

The market operator’s plan, released in December, also warned that financial decisions to repair and maintain ageing infrastructure “may be harder to justify under this uncertainty, potentially resulting in declining plant reliability”.

Environment Victoria, the state’s peak conservation body, said coal-fired power stations were increasingly experiencing faults. “They are getting old and needing additional maintenance,” campaign manager Greg Foyster said.

“We have to get replacement from renewable energy supply as soon as possible for these large-scale power stations.”

An Australian Energy Council spokesman said an electrical fault of the kind reported at Loy Yang A could occur randomly.

“Under the National Electricity Rules, the electrical equipment in generators must remain technically compliant with numerous standards and are routinely tested,” he said.

“Operators continue to make significant investments in their plants and work closely with the market operator to ensure availability.”

Grattan Institute energy director Tony Wood said it was not surprising that Loy Yang A, commissioned in the mid-1980s, was experiencing faults, but there was no evidence the event was associated with the age of the plant or any increasing unreliability.

“I’m not a supporter of the idea that these things are all falling apart and we need to close them down faster,” Wood said.

“We do need to be planning for their departure, but the individual events are more likely to be caused by specific outages and that’s the nature of a live piece of machinery.”

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