“At an estimated 12.3x [earnings valuation] to EBITDA, we view the deal as more opportunistic than realistic and unlikely to get across the line, with Ramsay’s strong global portfolio increasing regulatory risk,” Morgans Dr Derek Jellinek wrote on Thursday.
KKR has been watching the company for more than a year but has only just started due diligence. Analysts say other bidders will likely emerge before the process is over, given the current appeal of healthcare assets to private investors
“Given the nature of the assets, the potential for property sales and the current low-interest rate environment, other private equity or long duration asset managers could bid for the company also,” Citi analyst John Deakin-Bell said.
Analysts watching the stock said the bid was a continuation of a trend in international investors interested in local assets, following the sale of Sydney Airport to IFM and Global Infrastructure Partners in February, and the sale of AusNet to Canadian investor Brookfield.
A KKR spokesperson said the global investor was “confident the premium and certainty of cash offered, together with the material additional value delivered via the release of franking credits, represents compelling value to all Ramsay shareholders”.
A sector review by Bain and Company shows private equity’s interest in health assets across the Asia Pacific, including Australia, has boomed in the wake of the pandemic. There were 179 transactions in 2021, up from 156 in 2020, at a value of $17.8 billion.
“Asia-Pacific markets are seeing increased consumerism and willingness to spend in healthcare, which has fuelled activity, especially with investments in building a more robust consumer-centric digital health environment,” the consulting firm said in a report.
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