“The only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war and be strong as a country,” said Defence Minister Peter Dutton on Anzac Day. While this is true, his rhetoric is at odds with reality. The policy dispute over the Solomons is fundamentally about preparation. For all its talk, the government did not do enough to prevent China extending its reach.

The changes in Honiara have coincided with Morrison’s time as prime minister. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare returned to power in April 2019, Morrison won the federal election in May and visited Honiara in June. Then, in September, the Solomons recognised Beijing after years of siding with Taiwan. That came after Morrison antagonised leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum in August in talks over climate change.

While it may not have changed anything if Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne had flown to Honiara in recent months, she did not make the attempt. The government says it did not know of the agreement until a draft leaked on March 24, but at the same time it suggests its spies knew the deal was under way.

“Words are one thing, action is another,” said Labor deputy leader Richard Marles after Dutton’s remark. This is the necessary Labor response – to judge the government on the outcomes rather than the bombastic language.

Morrison’s message on Sunday about a “red line” in the affair, declaring he could not accept a Chinese military base in the Solomons, only raises questions about whether Australia or the United States could do anything in practical terms to stop such a base. The prime minister did not take questions from journalists on Monday to explain this position.

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The debate will now turn to practical policies. Labor will outline an increase in foreign aid and other measures in a step that intensifies the argument over foreign policy and national security.

This is not the ordinary game plan in an election campaign. But what alternative is there when the Chinese government’s success with Sogavare is a clear setback for Australian interests and confirmation of the way China will extend its influence?

Albanese and Labor foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong have spent most of the past term avoiding a policy gulf with Morrison on security and, especially, China. That changes now with their claim that they have a better policy to deal with the new challenges.

The election is being shaped by decisions in Beijing and Honiara. Not since 2001 has a security event had this influence over an Australian election. The argument over the response to China is now an essential part of the choice for voters on May 21.

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