The foothold that the Peoples’ Liberation Army, now holds in our region will be only the beginning. After all, the Chinese did not stop at building just a single island in the South China Sea. They probably already have designs on similar deals with other nations throughout the region.

We need to call this what it is – the Chinese Communist Party is undertaking a new age colonisation of the South Pacific. Without firm action from Australia, its Pacific neighbours as well as security partners, the Chinese will expand throughout the South Pacific. It will take a joined-up effort of thinking and resourcing from the region, and partners from further away such as the United States, Japan, Indonesia and yes, France, to combat this expansion.

Finally, this is a disaster for the people of the Solomon Islands. They will be subject to the foreign playbook of the Chinese Communist Party, which uses cheap debt to trap vulnerable governments while also sharing all the methods and technologies that increase societal surveillance and decrease the competence of democratic governance. The secrecy of this new compact is just an early indicator of grim days ahead for democracy in the Solomon Islands.

Despite the Pacific Step-Up announced in 2016, the Australian government has continued to under-invest in its relationships with its neighbours in the South Pacific region. At a time when Australia’s strategic circumstances continue to worsen, our diplomatic and foreign aid programs are under resourced. The nations of the South Pacific are small and centred on personal relationships. A big grey warship offshore might impress for a moment, but long-standing engagements between people are essential to Australia’s influence in the region.

While we need to be careful not to over-militarise our response to the Chinese agreement, Australia does need to step up its military capacity. The infrastructure projects in places like Black Rock in Fiji are a good start. But the languishing project to build a joint Australian/PNG/US base on Manus Island needs more energy. There will need to be other similar projects to enhance the capacity of South Pacific nations, enable Australian assistance and inject transparent aid money.

Australia also requires a modern, 21st century deterrence capability that will make any adversary think twice about heading into the South Pacific. Unfortunately, Australia is still talking too much, while moving much too slowly at buying the required air, sea, and land systems. The Chinese have found us out and are now capitalising on our weaknesses.

Loading

Regardless of who wins the federal election, a rapid strategic assessment will be needed to adjust our national security priorities. This can’t be the standard Canberra multi-year review process that leads to limited creativity, thick reports, higher budgets and minimal change. The next government needs to commission a quick re-evaluation of national security risks and opportunities, establish an overarching strategy for our national security, publish funding priorities and then allow agencies to get on with rapid change without having to clear every minor decision with junior Parliament House staffers.

Our country will need to step up in its Pacific Step-Up strategy. It is necessary because, unfortunately, all the strategic trends point to further Chinese provocations and a rapidly deteriorating security outlook for Australia in the coming years.