The decision last week by the US Supreme Court to overturn the 1973 judgment known as Roe v Wade is a worrying sign on many levels, including that Australia and its closest ally might be heading on divergent political and social paths.

Since the 1960s, the US has often served as an example to democracies, including Australia, of progressive reform. The civil rights movement in the US inspired the campaign that led to recognition of Indigenous Australians in the Constitution in 1967. Australian feminists and supporters of gay rights in the 1970s looked to the US for inspiration and ideas.

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Yet that sense of shared values seems to be fraying in a number of areas as the US sinks deeper into division and intractable culture wars.

The Supreme Court, which found by a majority of 5-4 that the US Constitution does not guarantee the right to an abortion, is one sign of that divergence.

The decision allows individual states to ban abortion. There are nine states with a population of 40 million which have triggered legislation that banned abortions as soon as the judgment was handed down, and 16 more could follow suit.

The decision means that, for the first time since the 1970s, women in the US who choose to terminate an unwanted pregnancy will face the threat of jail. Doctors who provide the service will face prosecution. Some states may try to punish women who travel interstate to have the procedure.

In Australia, the debate over women’s reproductive rights has largely been settled. South Australia became the last state to make abortion legal last year, following NSW in 2019.

While some women’s rights activists in Australia have expressed concern that the Supreme Court decision will inspire conservatives in Australia to try to reopen the issue of abortion, it seems unlikely that they can gain much traction.

The balance in Australia has swung in favour of secular values over religious ones, not just on abortion but also on LGBTQ rights and voluntary assisted dying. Women have growing political power, not just on abortion but on issues from childcare to domestic violence.