Depending on which economist is doing the talking, there are another two to three half a percentage point rate increases coming down the pike for the remainder of this calendar year.

Based on continued inflationary pressure and a drum-tight labour market, some economists are even forecasting that a 75 basis point rise is what the RBA has in store for Australians in August.

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The minutes from the RBA meeting, released on Tuesday, address this paradox of tenacious consumer spending even in the face of rising rates.

“Timely data indicated that growth in domestic demand had remained solid in the June quarter, led by household spending. Although consumer sentiment had declined notably, household consumption was supported by growth in disposable income, the increase in saving and wealth that occurred earlier in the pandemic, and the rebound in discretionary services spending.”

Two elements explain why consumers have defied wallet-closing expectations, at least until the end of June.

The first and most important is the tight labour market. While this won’t last indefinitely, it does inevitably lead to an improvement in wage growth, a degree of financial security and the ability to service the interest on loans despite rates rising.

The other is the well-documented $260 billion additional stash of cash that Australians are holding in bank accounts, saved during the lockdowns when there was far less to spend it on.

This doesn’t provide immunity to rate rises; it just means many households are less sensitive to higher rates.

That said, there are already some signs that July spending, particularly on discretionary goods and services, is beginning to cool. Various proprietary data sets from institutions including the Commonwealth Bank are pointing in that direction.

And it’s worth noting that JB Hi-Fi, which is already armed with information on its sales for July, was giving no forward-looking hints on how sales in the current quarter of the new financial year are tracking.

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