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The Kremlin announced the annexation plans Thursday, saying Putin would sign documents on the entry of new territories into the Russian Federation and give “a voluminous speech.”
The ceremony will be accompanied by a festive celebration. Just outside the Kremlin walls, workers were putting up billboards and a giant video screen Thursday for what state media described as an open-air rally and concert Friday “in support” of the “referendums” on joining Russia — fraudulent votes that were held in Russian-occupied Ukraine in recent days.
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The planned pomp appeared to be aimed at winning public approval and support for the annexation.
Festivities aside, Putin’s declaration will signal a new and more dangerous phase of the war. Once he declares Ukrainian territory to be an inextricable part of Russia — a declaration that Russia’s rubber-stamp parliament and constitutional court are expected to approve by next week — he will rule out any negotiations over that area’s future status, analysts said.
And after going through with the annexation, Putin may also declare that any future Ukrainian military action there threatens Russian territorial integrity — a threat, he said last week, to which Russia’s nuclear-armed military may respond with “all the means at our disposal.”
“This is not a bluff,” he added.
Cars queuing toward the border crossing at Verkhny Lars between Russia and Georgia, leaving Chmi, North Ossetia - Alania Republic, in Russia.Credit:AP
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday condemned the Kremlin’s plans, saying they were part of “a futile effort to mask what amounts to a further attempt at a land grab in Ukraine”.
“To be clear,” he added, “the results were orchestrated in Moscow and do not reflect the will of the people of Ukraine. The United States does not, and will never, recognise the legitimacy or outcome of these sham referenda or Russia’s purported annexation of Ukrainian territory.”
Ukraine gave no sign that threats by Putin would cause it to back down. In a speech late Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine reiterated his denunciation of the referendums and said he was working with foreign leaders to coordinate a strong international response.
A woman and her children cross a street, with a huge poster reading ‘With Russia forever!’ in the background in Luhansk, Luhansk People’s Republic controlled by Russia-backed separatists, eastern Ukraine.Credit:AP
“Our key task now is to coordinate actions with partners in response to sham referendums organised by Russia and all related threats,” Zelensky said.
In Russia, Friday’s fanfare will take place against the backdrop of Putin’s chaotic “partial mobilisation” — the large-scale military draft that he announced September 21 and that has led to demonstrations, attacks on enlistment offices and tens of thousands of men trying to flee the country. Western experts are sceptical that the mobilisation of conscripts will quickly be able to reverse Russia’s battlefield losses.
A poll published by the independent Levada Centre on Thursday showed rising anxiety over the war among Russians — a conflict that much of the public had largely tuned out until Putin’s draft order last week. The poll found 56 per cent of Russians saying they were “very alarmed” by events in Ukraine, up from 37 per cent in August. Asked what they felt upon hearing of Putin’s draft order, 47 per cent described “anxiety, fear, horror,” while only 27 per cent said they felt pride.
But despite Putin’s setbacks on the battlefield and the domestic headwinds, Russian analysts said he appeared to still see a path to victory in the war — even though it was unclear how, exactly, he would define a victory.
People make preparations for a concert at the Red Square, with constructions reading the words “Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Russia”, and the St. Basil’s Cathedral and Lenin Mausoleum on the background, in Moscow.Credit:AP
Vasily Kashin, who specialises in military and political issues at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, said in a phone interview that he believed that the influx of conscripts could yet turn the tide in the war and allow Russia to go on the offensive in Ukraine by the winter. Russian troops might even take control of more key territory like the city of Odesa, he speculated, and precipitate the collapse of Zelenskyy’s government.
At the same time, Kashin said, the war was entering a “very dangerous period.” As the West sends Ukraine more weapons, he said, Putin would not accept losing control of the regions he is planning to annex Friday, even if that meant using nuclear weapons and accepting the risk of nuclear escalation.
“We are passing a point of no return tomorrow,” Kashin said. “After this, we will not be able to refrain from defending these territories with all means, including nuclear weapons.”