“All things being equal, foreign policy and a candidate’s global outreach don’t matter much in Indonesian elections, but if the race is tight, it may well be decided by a handful of middle-class voters who want their president to be internationally presentable,” said Associate Professor Marcus Mietzner, an expert on Indonesian politics at the Australian National University.

“The interesting aspect of this is that Anies should have the least need for such globetrotting: he has a US PhD. And yet Anies seems the most interested in his overseas image. This suggests that this is not only about foreign policy; it also appears designed to show doubters at home that he is not seen as an Islamist by his Western partners.”

Widodo, known as Jokowi, is also due to fly to Canberra for this year’s edition of the annual leaders’ meeting, which resumed after the pandemic. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Jakarta and Makassar just two weeks after Labor’s election victory in May.

Widodo’s visit is likely to occur mid-year, according to Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, although no date has been fixed.

With Widodo to finish his second and final term in October 2024, though, much attention is turning to who will follow him.

Baswedan is in the mix having spent the past three years leading Jakarta’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and having been credited with measures such as expanding public parks while running the megacity.

He also actively demonstrated pluralist credentials while in charge of the capital, including by directing emergency cash support during the pandemic towards other religions’ places of worship as well as to mosques, and by overseeing the introduction of Christmas carols in public.

But Asra Virgianita, an international relations scholar at the University of Indonesia, said Baswedan still faced a battle to detach himself from the identity politics of six years ago. He was backed in 2017 by Gerindra, the party headed by Subianto, who was also perceived to have played the religious card in his defeats to Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections.

“I think this is the point that [Baswedan feels he needs] to fix in the context of the presidential election,” she said.

“He wants to ensure the international public do not see him as someone who will make discriminatory policies. I think this is the most crucial thing he has to do. This is Anies’ biggest problem.”

An endorsement from the hugely popular Widodo also looms as key while the pre-election picture takes shape this year but Baswedan, who was dumped from cabinet in 2016 and is regarded as a political opponent of the president, won’t be the recipient of that.

Even so, Mietzner believes his election prospects are solid.

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“His chances are good. The race is tight between Ganjar, Anies and Prabowo, and a few percentage points may decide [the winner],” he said.

“Anies’ biggest disadvantage, as an ethnic Arab, is his lack of appeal in the Javanese heartland. He also struggles to convince religious minorities that his dog-whistling campaign in the 2017 gubernatorial elections in Jakarta, when he courted the Islamist vote, was an isolated incident.

“But he is young, energetic, eloquent and charismatic, and is seen as having done a good job as governor. He is far from the front-runner, but he has a chance.”

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