After years of drought, fires and floods, Sydneysiders can look forward to a relatively old-fashioned autumn with warmer weather and less rainfall.

Weatherzone meteorologist James Rout said this was because the weather patterns that have driven the recent wet weather – including back-to-back La Nina events and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole – have weakened.

For the next few months, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean will remain neutral throughout autumn, which will drive the above-average temperatures and less rainfall for much of the country. Parts of inland Australia will have cooler nights as well.

However, Rout said the warmer waters along the East Australian Current will draw more moisture to the coastlines, which means average temperatures and rainfall will probably occur. The additional moisture in the atmosphere also means we’re likely to see warmer nights.

But long-term forecasts in autumn are particularly hard to get right as ocean temperatures, which drive much of the onshore weather behaviour, can fluctuate, Rout said.

Weather models show that, after autumn, an El Nino cycle and positive Indian Ocean Dipole might occur, which would bring higher than average temperatures and less rainfall for summer. These two weather events occurred in 2019, when Australia experienced its worst bushfire season.

After years of heavy rainfall, authorities have been prevented from carrying out their normal mitigation efforts and are concerned about the strong grass growth in western NSW, which has elevated the risk of fires.

The outlook, released by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council on Thursday, found there would also be increased risk for parts of Tasmania, Western Australia, and southern Queensland. Victoria remains at normal or below normal fire potential.