Taiwan’s coal imports fell 8 per cent in 2022 and plans to enlarge its coal-fired power fleet have been shelved. In South Korea, coal demand was steady last year, but is likely to come under pressure from the country’s accelerating use of gas, renewables and nuclear energy in coming years. Japan is planning for renewable energy to account for as much as 26 per cent of its power mix by 2030.

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International gas markets are expected to remain tight and volatile until the end of 2024, largely because European nations are still seeking imports to make up for the lost supply that traditionally came via pipeline from Russia.

But new LNG facilities in the US and Qatar are set to crank up in 2025 to fill part of the gap.

The value of Australia’s overall coal exports is predicted to fall by $79 billion, from $128 billion to $49 billion, by 2028. LNG is expected to retreat by $44 billion, from $91 billion to $47 billion. This means Australia’s total fossil fuel export earnings could fall by more than $123 billion.

Resources Minister Madeleine King said Australia’s resources and energy exports continued to be “strikingly resilient”, and underlined the nation’s role as a stable and reliable supplier despite the global turmoil caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

She added that Australia’s exports of vital raw materials in clean-energy technologies, such as lithium, were growing strongly and on track to equal the value of coal shipments by 2027-28.

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“Base metals and critical minerals such as lithium are crucial components of clean-energy technologies such as batteries, solar panels and wind turbines, which will help the world lower emissions and meet net-zero commitments,” King said.

The price of iron ore, the key steel-making raw ingredient, rebounded strongly in 2023 amid a recovery in Chinese steel production. Iron ore’s export earnings are forecast to be worth about $121 billion in 2022-23, down slightly from $132 billion a year earlier.

The trade figures show iron ore earnings falling to $98 billion in 2023-24 and to $75 billion by 2027-28.

However, the commodity has defied repeated past predictions that it is overdue for a period of prolonged weakness. At this time last year, iron ore was forecast to earn just $105 billion for this financial year.

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