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Posted: 2023-07-06 05:54:52

The Liberals also understand the politics of scapegoats and until now, have avoided taking a stand supporting Lowe, whom the Morrison government appointed.

It certainly looks like Hume has gone a little rogue in her vocal support for Lowe. And Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor didn’t fall in behind her. Not a word from either.

You have to hand it to Hume, for honestly speaking her mind this week when declaring the government had “demonised” Lowe, whom she says was “only doing his job”.

That said, any decision by the government to replace Lowe comes with a number of dangers.

To be sure, the handful of shortlisted candidates are very well-credentialed, but the first potential pitfall is that a replacement is not as competent as Lowe himself.

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Lowe has a strong support base in the economics community and is seen by many to be the best person for the job, in terms of academic credentials, experience and temperament.

Business leaders and senior executives in the banking industry privately support Lowe and his attempts to combat entrenched inflation even while acknowledging his judgment erred when he predicted interest rates would likely remain at record lows until 2024.

The next potential hazard for Chalmers is installing a public servant into the Reserve Bank governor’s seat. This could be interpreted as impinging on the central bank’s independence.

Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy is reportedly the frontrunner and a contender along with finance secretary Jenny Wilkinson.

And then there is a risk that a change at the top of the central bank produces more of the same. If a new governor deems it best for the economy to take up the mantle of inflation fighter and continues to increase interest rates, the public howls of protest will just be redirected – and the government won’t win any brownie points for replacing Lowe.

 Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy – the favourite?

Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy – the favourite?Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

(That said, the good news for the incoming governor is that the heavy lifting on rates would have already been done under Lowe, so Australia’s next central banker will more likely have the job of lowering rates when they take up their position in September.)

There is even an argument to suggest that if Lowe was to be granted an extension, he might not race as hard to lift rates in the near term.

This has some merit given Lowe would prefer his legacy is seen as an inflation buster, if he has three more months to get that job done.

While Lowe might be thick-skinned, the biggest question of all is why he would want to extend his term given the abuse he has already endured.

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