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The Commonwealth Bank’s result on August 9 will provide a key gauge of how households and banks are faring, but earlier this month CBA chief executive Matt Comyn said outright hardship remained low, despite rising pressures.

Andrew Martin, principal at fund manager Alphinity, said banks still appeared to be experiencing low rates of loan stress, and retailers would feel the pain of a slowdown first.

“I think the commentary [from banks] will be very similar to what we saw in May,” Martin said, referring to the latest bank reporting season.

“If you look at where the profit warnings have come, it’s retail.”

For mining giants, much of the focus will be on the outlook for China’s economy, which has been slowing in recent months, sparking predictions of government stimulus.

Another key issue for investors will be profit margins, and how much firms have been able to flex their “pricing power” by passing on higher costs to customers.

Milford Asset Management portfolio manager Will Curtayne predicted there would be more “negative surprises” in the earnings season, with consumer-facing businesses being squeezed on two fronts: weaker spending and pressure on margins.

“We think the August reporting season will likely represent the peak of the earnings downgrade momentum this cycle,” he said.

White Funds Management managing director Angus Gluskie also said the extent of consumer weakness would be a key theme, alongside rising business costs and arrears rates for banks.

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“Are we going to see impacts of the consumer purchasing less, or businesses cutting back on services to try to lower their own costs? I think we are going to see it, but it’s how deeply are we going to see it,” he said.

The latest earnings season comes as investors continue to grapple with the impacts of a global inflation breakout, which has caused central banks to raise interest rates steeply, risking recession.

Figures on June-quarter inflation, to be published on Wednesday, could be a key influence on whether the Reserve Bank pushes the cash rate higher than 4.1 per cent, compared with 0.1 per cent in April last year.

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